hello - Political Forum

astralis · 11-14-2006, 03:19 PM

hello all,

was invited by W.E.B. dubois from some of the other forums which i frequent. i'm a taiwanese-american, currently working as a political analyst. specialties are middle east and east asia...

hopefully i will contribute something of value here? who knows?

superbug · 11-14-2006, 03:23 PM

So are you Taiwanese or American?

FRYandBENDER · 11-14-2006, 09:03 PM

Howdy.

superbug · 11-14-2006, 09:19 PM

OH YEA! Hi.

africanhope · 11-15-2006, 02:37 AM

welcome!

sglaine · 11-15-2006, 12:14 PM

Welcome aboard and enjoy your stay here.

USViking · 11-15-2006, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W.E.B. Du Bois

Hey astralis,

I've known astralis for a bit over the years. We used to both be on the Chinese Military forum, a forum for Chinese nationalists. Well, let's not get into that can of worms.

In any case, I'm glad to have you aboard. I've found that the posters who are most interested in this place are those who are interested in the many different parts of the world. I have seen a few of your posts on WAFF and I know that you know about Taiwanese defensive capabilities.

Actually, myself and another poster here (USViking) were arguing against this Chinese poster (on another board) who was saying that China could waltz in and conquer Taiwan anytime they want to. I remembered what you told me about Taiwan having the densest air defenses in the world. I mixed it up a lot with that other guy.

We also have several Chinese posters on this site and we do like to talk about Chinese politics and Taiwan politics. ( http://www.usandworldpolitics.com/fo...asia-politics/ ) As you know, there is a lot of corruption and impeachment issues whirling around the Taiwanese President right now. Well let me ask you this, do you think that CSB's wife will be convicted of corruption and that CSB will have to step down? Do you think the DPP and the TSU will survive the next vote if they just defend Chen Shui Bian based on party loyalty?

I enjoyed the hell out of that thread, especially including
WEB's invalable contributions. If my damn computer hadn't
crashed we might still be going at it. I think we made our
points very well anyway, though.

astralis · 11-15-2006, 04:58 PM

hello again to all!

superbug, i consider myself american first and foremost.

WEB dubois,

well, i do know something of taiwanese military capabilities, but my specialties remain politics. but even what little i do know makes it pretty obvious that anyone who thinks china can take taiwan anytime it wants knows nothing about either china or taiwan's military capabilities.

regarding

Quote:

Well let me ask you this, do you think that CSB's wife will be convicted of corruption and that CSB will have to step down? Do you think the DPP and the TSU will survive the next vote if they just defend Chen Shui Bian based on party loyalty?

i do not know if CSB's wife will be convicted or not, but if she is, CSB has repeated that he will step down in such an eventuality so many times that he will certainly lose whatever remains of his credibility if he does not.

quite a few members of the DPP and TSU have already made sounds telling CSB to resign for the good of the party, but for the most part they are keeping a pretty good outward face of party loyalty. however, if things become much more serious, and CSB doesn't acknowledge this, then expect this party loyalty to disappear altogether.

right now it's not looking too good for the pan-greens.

astralis · 11-16-2006, 01:55 PM

WEB,

Quote:

Personally, I don't think China can pull it off at all. In theory, China could grind down Taiwan over a period of many months. Just cranking out the missiles and shooting them over the straight. But the world is not going to idly sit by while China does that, and it would be rather easy for the US to send a few carrier battlegroups and put them in the way, and then that would be the end of it.

In a bloody fight of attrition lasting for like 6 months, yeah maybe China can win, but not faster than that. Also, China ain't getting 6 months from the world to do that.

china's war plan (the WZC plan which they've been discussing at CDF for years) does not anticipate such a long drawn-out campaign. at best, they hope that the landings they can effect will be enough for taipei to blanch and agree to negotiations (NOT to conquer taiwan), before the americans can decisively intervene.

Quote:

I guess it is likely that the pan-blue will win the next election. When will that be, do you know?

well, next big election is the presidential election in 2008!

Coyote Says · 11-16-2006, 02:38 PM

Welcome aboard, astralis!

Happy posting!