There's two possibilities: the first one, and the more desirable one, which is not unlikely, is that all the insurgency aimed and aroused because of US presence there would stop, because obviously the reason for that insurgency is gone, which would leave rather few remaining insurgents that even the current government could deal with. You also have to remember that Arabs (Iraqis) and Persians (Iranians) are basically natural enemies that hav ebeen fighting for decades - with the mutual enemy (the US) gone, it's rather far-fetched to assume somehow this cooperation, if any, will continue.

The second one is obviously that a civil war could break out between the three ethnic groups. Not only do oppinion polls suggest that since the Iraqi's main problem is US occupation this is rather unlikely, but even if it were to happen, it would happen wether the US pulls out now, in 10 years or in 20 years. If the divisions between the Iraqis are so strong that they would bash eachothers heads, then that will not change, probably only be exacerbated, by US presence there. So in that case you would only prolonging the inevitable, which means there also is no reason to stay any longer.

In any case, both scenarios can only profit from the US leaving. Either by resolving the problem itself, or by letting this come to a conclusion as fast as possible.

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Two points for you.

First of all, the insurgency didn't develop because of the mismanagement of the war by the US. The insurgency has existed since day one when we invaded. The people of any nation have a right to oppose the invasion and occupation of THEIR country by a foreign nation and that is the basis for the insurgency. While perhaps more organized over time that merely has to do with the duration of the occupation and not with anything that the US has done or hasn't done since invading and occupying Iraq.

The second point is that while we might be facing about 100,000 armed militia members in Iraq they represent the majority of all Iraqis. As was noted before over 51% of all Iraqis support armed resistance to the US occupation. Trying to "kill off the opposition" would be paramount to genocide resulting in the deaths of millions of Iraqis.

I seriously doubt that Iraq would subdivide itself if the US left. The Iraqi People are very nationalistic and, in fact, it is this very nationalism that is behind the insurgency.

As for referring the matter to the UN that would be desasterous. A UN occupation would be no different than the NATO occupation in Afghanistan where the US is attempting to exclude a large percentage of the population from representation in the government. There is fundamentally no difference between the occupation of a nation by a country and the occupation of a country by numerous nations. The occupation would continue and it would only continue with the US military as no other nations would want to send their troops to Iraq. An occupying force is an accupying force.

As has been noted, the US has not ended the Sunni insurgency but merely reduced its activities by fundamentally paying the Sunnis to not actively fight us for now. Al Sadr has also shown a historical preference to working within the Iraqi government and his opposition is merely against working with the US occupation. Remember, it was al Sadr that initiated a unlateral ceasefire and it was the US backed Iraqi forces of al Maliki that initiated the recent violence in Basra. Al Sadr has not shown a desire to fight against other Iraqis and his focus has always been on the US occupation forces and those that support that occupation.

Al Qaeda in Iraq and the PKK are not serious threats to the sovereignty of Iraq. Both represent extremist positions and don't have the support of the Iraqi people. Numerically they are insignificant and both would be suppressed by a unified Iraqi government that will result once the US departs.

It would not take 15 months for the US to leave Iraq. We could logically leave in less than 90 days if we choose to do so. Yes, that would require leaving a lot of US equipment behind but so what. How many American lives is a truck really worth? We've already wasted all of the money spent so far so trying to recoup some of it by a lengthly withdrawal that costs American lives is stupid.

Unfortunately there are no plans to leave Iraq at all. Even Obama has stated that he wants to leave a military force in Iraq. Hell, just to garrison the new US embassy in Baghdad would require tens of thousands of US troops.

If we want to pull out we need to look at pulling out completely and that included our diplomatic mission to Iraq. When they are ready they will ask us to return but to stay there in defiance of the wishes of the Iraqi People is absurd.

So you want to leave all that tech and metal back there to be used by anyone and everyone that wants? That would end up costing more lives in the long run.

LOL WHAT?

You did not answer my question.

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"America is not at war. The U.S. military is at war. America is at the
mall."

Why not? That's what we did in Viet-Nam. Without maintenance most of it will be junk very shortly anyway. Probably cost more to ship in back than it would be worth.

Not so much.

This may be the case if we used civilian transport. But most of it would be coming back on our boats.

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"America is not at war. The U.S. military is at war. America is at the
mall."

Well of course it's always better and cheaper to have our own military do things for themselves rather than outsource it to civilian contractors as so called conservatives like to do.

However, I'm surprised that you are admitting this given what seems to be your political persuasion.

Anything that can't be flown out, loaded on a truck, towed by a truck, or driven out of Iraq can simply be blown up.

Problem solved and we are out of there in less than 90 days.

i have, but i've read far, far more written by israelis ~

you give me far more credit than i deserve as it is not my opinion. as i stated, but apparently you failed to comprehend, i rely on the advice of experts. here is the expert i was referring to;

perhaps damned if you do. why do you want to make matters worse? do you hate america? or do you think what is good for israel is good for america?

let's hope it doesn't finish us off

whoa ~ talk about moving the goal posts