Will Civilization Die? - Political Forum

Wheeldog · #1 (**permalink**) 05-04-2008, 05:19 PM

http://www.climateark.org/shared/rea...x?linkid=97741

Quote:

... Every extra layer of organisation imposes a cost in terms of energy, the common currency of all human efforts, from building canals to educating scribes. And increasing complexity, Tainter realised, produces diminishing returns. The extra food produced by each extra hour of labour - or joule of energy invested per farmed hectare - diminishes as that investment mounts. We see the same thing today in a declining number of patents per dollar invested in research as that research investment mounts. This law of diminishing returns appears everywhere, Tainter says.

To keep growing, societies must keep solving problems as they arise. Yet each problem solved means more complexity. Success generates a larger population, more kinds of specialists, more resources to manage, more information to juggle - and, ultimately, less bang for your buck.

Eventually, says Tainter, the point is reached when all the energy and resources available to a society are required just to maintain its existing level of complexity. Then when the climate changes or barbarians invade, overstretched institutions break down and civil order collapses. What emerges is a less complex society, which is organised on a smaller scale or has been taken over by another group.

Tainter sees diminishing returns as the underlying reason for the collapse of all ancient civilisations, from the early Chinese dynasties to the Greek city state of Mycenae. These civilisations relied on the solar energy that could be harvested from food, fodder and wood, and from wind. When this had been stretched to its limit, things fell apart.

An ineluctable process

Western industrial civilisation has become bigger and more complex than any before it by exploiting new sources of energy, notably coal and oil, but these are limited. There are increasing signs of diminishing returns: the energy required to get each new joule of oil is mounting and although global food production is still increasing, constant innovation is needed to cope with environmental degradation and evolving pests and diseases - the yield boosts per unit of investment in innovation are shrinking. "Since problems are inevitable," Tainter warns, "this process is in part ineluctable......"

The writer poses an interesting question - are civilizations inherently programmed to fail? As a civilization becomes more powerful and complex it also becomes more fragile and prone to disruptions. It has happened to virtually all past great civilizations. Is there any credible reason to believe it won't happen again - to us? Are we susceptable to the law of deminishing returns? If so, where do we go from here?

bododie · #2 (**permalink**) 05-04-2008, 07:09 PM

I think that the concept of man being civilized is the problem. He just isn't.
Mankind is however insane, in that we keep making the same mistakes that every major civilization that failed made, and expect the outcome to be different.
It won't be.

discoman · #3 (**permalink**) 05-04-2008, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wheeldog

http://www.climateark.org/shared/rea...x?linkid=97741

The writer poses an interesting question - are civilizations inherently programmed to fail? As a civilization becomes more powerful and complex it also becomes more fragile and prone to disruptions. It has happened to virtually all past great civilizations. Is there any credible reason to believe it won't happen again - to us? Are we susceptable to the law of deminishing returns? If so, where do we go from here?

I think you hit the nail right on the head wheeldog. I am writing a Science fiction novell about this subject. I don't mean to alarm you,or any one else who may read this, but I have these visions of the future of America and the world. I see a future where water will cost $5 $6 or maybe $10dollars
a gallon. I do feel that America and the rest of the western civilized world, will be in battle with these "Barbarians"from other less developed nations of the world.

We do have a battle going on right now in Iraq and Afghanistan, with a"Barbed" race of people.The Islamist extremist.The situation will get a lot
worse, before it gets any better. As you say "the complexity of America",
and other western nations, has reduced some of our priorities looking at the world from a global stand point.We must remember that it was the Barbarians, that ultimately sacked Rome. As I said, the attack has already been initiated.

With regard to your question, "Are civilizations inherently prone to fail?",I would say no,but apathy and ignorance is a good destroyer of any complex sophisticated society.As is the case now with America and many European nations.

China, on the other had is making an investment in the future by investing in Africa and many emerging nations with natural resources.America and Euroupe, will be at a big disadvantage if they do not invest in Africa now.

In the end, America and the west will be attacked by the Barbarians at some point in the future again.It may not be an attack, like Sept11,it will be hundreds of millions of Barbarians rushing to our shores,and attacking us from the Air.
This will all occur. within our life time. What will we do Wheeldog? We can't nuke them all.What do you suggest we do?

"The future will be ruled,by those who have the most Guns and advanced weapon systems,
those who control the barrel of the Gun, will be in charge!"

Wheeldog · #4 (**permalink**) 05-05-2008, 04:03 AM

While living in remote native villages in Alaska I was impressed by the resilience and versitility of supposedly primitive societies. They faced horrific weather, dangerous traveling conditions and frequent shortages of basic food resources. Older villagers had known starvation situations and had seen family members die. In more isolated villages prior to the 1970s, they usually did without things most of us consider to be basic to normal living. Through it all they thrived. It was more than being tough.

There were few so-called specialists in native communities. Everyone pretty much knew how to do everything basic to living off the land. Some were more skilled in a particular task; building dog sleds or skin boats, finding the best places to net fish, hunting caribou, sewing skin clothing, etc., but virtually everyone could do them all. With few exceptions they relied on themselves and their neighbors to get what they needed to survive from the immediate surrounding territory. This same self reliance and strength was once commonplace in much of the U.S. prior to the early decades of the 20th Century in farming areas and small towns.

Today modern life is specialized to the point where people often have little practical skills outside the narrow range of their jobs. If for some reason the system is disrupted most suddenly feel helpless. The degree of dependency on people we rarely even know places us at great risk, particularly when things go wrong. It is those with a broad range of essential skills and a working cooperative support group that are best suited for surviving when the going gets tough.

Bartholomew Roberts · #5 (**permalink**) 05-05-2008, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wheeldog

http://www.climateark.org/shared/rea...x?linkid=97741

The writer poses an interesting question - are civilizations inherently programmed to fail? As a civilization becomes more powerful and complex it also becomes more fragile and prone to disruptions. It has happened to virtually all past great civilizations. Is there any credible reason to believe it won't happen again - to us? Are we susceptable to the law of deminishing returns? If so, where do we go from here?

Yes, we are susceptable. This idea is the basic idea behind economics. There is limited supply and nearly unlimited demand. This is why the business cycle works: because the economy occasionally needs to reset itself by going through recession and depression where prices are brought down, and the population, through some means, ends up shrinking, be it through disease, hunger, or war.

Caltex · #6 (**permalink**) 05-05-2008, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discoman

I think you hit the nail right on the head wheeldog. I am writing a Science fiction novell about this subject. I don't mean to alarm you,or any one else who may read this, but I have these visions of the future of America and the world. I see a future where water will cost $5 $6 or maybe $10dollars
a gallon. I do feel that America and the rest of the western civilized world, will be in battle with these "Barbarians"from other less developed nations of the world.

We do have a battle going on right now in Iraq and Afghanistan, with a"Barbed" race of people.The Islamist extremist.The situation will get a lot
worse, before it gets any better. As you say "the complexity of America",
and other western nations, has reduced some of our priorities looking at the world from a global stand point.We must remember that it was the Barbarians, that ultimately sacked Rome. As I said, the attack has already been initiated.

With regard to your question, "Are civilizations inherently prone to fail?",I would say no,but apathy and ignorance is a good destroyer of any complex sophisticated society.As is the case now with America and many European nations.

China, on the other had is making an investment in the future by investing in Africa and many emerging nations with natural resources.America and Euroupe, will be at a big disadvantage if they do not invest in Africa now.

In the end, America and the west will be attacked by the Barbarians at some point in the future again.It may not be an attack, like Sept11,it will be hundreds of millions of Barbarians rushing to our shores,and attacking us from the Air.
This will all occur. within our life time. What will we do Wheeldog? We can't nuke them all.What do you suggest we do?

"The future will be ruled,by those who have the most Guns and advanced weapon systems,
those who control the barrel of the Gun, will be in charge!"

Africa is more prone to go extinct than it is to rise to greatness. The AIDS incidence in Africa is very high, and going up. If the trend continues for a couple hundred more years Africans will go extinct.

China is just making the quick bucks while they can.

discoman · #7 (**permalink**) 05-05-2008, 02:12 PM

If China makes a coalition with African nations, they will become a very powerfull coalition.AIDS cases in Africa have leveled off, and is now on the decrease.Africa and China can take over the world at some point in the future.China has nuclear weapons and can transfer the technology to African nations.

In a world were natural resources are being depleated,and populations are on the increase,the have not , will increasingly look towards the haves.
America is the country with the most people that have.

"THE FUTURE WILL BE RULED BY THOSE WHO WIELD THE BARREL OF THE GUN!"

sirhc · #8 (**permalink**) 05-11-2008, 08:23 PM

-every time a civilization fails it degrades into war/anarchy.
-the population is thinned out
-eventually people reform into towns, villages, tribes, whatever
-through war, diplomacy, ect the people begin to reform
-a conisation is formed
-it all starts again

but through trial and error a stable civilization may form, the current world powers are not that stable civilization. We will either change or fail like all those before us.

Wheeldog · #9 (**permalink**) 05-11-2008, 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sirhc

-every time a civilization fails it degrades into war/anarchy.
-the population is thinned out
-eventually people reform into towns, villages, tribes, whatever
-through war, diplomacy, ect the people begin to reform
-a conisation is formed
-it all starts again

but through trial and error a stable civilization may form, the current world powers are not that stable civilization. We will either change or fail like all those before us.

The history of civilizations is not promising, and our accelerating depletion of essential resources is very troubling. The basic premise for an inborn tendency of civilations to collapse is that increasing complexity makes civilizations increasingly prone to disruptions. Case in point, our society has become more and more specialized narrowing the range of skills for a given individual. Hence, fewer and fewer people are truly able to take care of themselves and must increasingly rely on other specialists and a more complex and delicate infrastructure. A successful terrorist attack on an oil terminal thousands away could play havoic with the entire U.S. and Western economy. Each year the system becomes even more delicate and unsustainable over a prolonged period.

discoman · #10 (**permalink**) 05-12-2008, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wheeldog

The history of civilizations is not promising, and our accelerating depletion of essential resources is very troubling. The basic premise for an inborn tendency of civilations to collapse is that increasing complexity makes civilizations increasingly prone to disruptions. Case in point, our society has become more and more specialized narrowing the range of skills for a given individual. Hence, fewer and fewer people are truly able to take care of themselves and must increasingly rely on other specialists and a more complex and delicate infrastructure. A successful terrorist attack on an oil terminal thousands away could play havoic with the entire U.S. and Western economy. Each year the system becomes even more delicate and unsustainable over a prolonged period.

If what you are saying is in fact true,then the ever increasing complexity will continue for American and western civilizations.Thus, exposing us to more vulnerability, and disruptions. As you correctly stated, depleating natural resources, and ever increasing compitition for these resources will lead to furture conflict.As I stated though.In an increaseingly chaotic world.

"The Future belongs to those who have the Guns"...