Most Believe Peak Oil - Political Forum

Wheeldog · 04-20-2008, 08:45 PM

Oil running out as prime energy source: world poll | Environment | Reuters

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Most people believe oil is running out and governments need to find another fuel, but Americans are alone in thinking their leaders are out of touch with reality on this issue, an international poll said on Sunday.

On average, 70 percent of respondents in 15 countries and the Palestinian territories said they thought oil supplies had peaked. Only 22 percent of the nearly 15,000 respondents in nations ranging from China to Mexico believed enough new oil would be found to keep it a primary fuel source.

"What's most striking is there's such a widespread consensus around the world that oil is running out and governments need to make a real effort to find new sources of energy," said Steven Kull, director of WorldPublicOpinion.org, a global research organization that conducted the poll.
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The current tightening of the oil market is not temporary but will continue and the price of oil will rise substantially, most respondents said.
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U.S. GOVERNMENT "NOT FACING REALITY"

"Americans perceive that the government is not facing reality," Kull said.
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The poll was conducted in China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Nigeria, Russia, Mexico, Britain, France, Iran, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Egypt, Turkey, South Korea and the Palestinian territories.......

The reality of peak oil is sinking in. We are entering a new era in which energy will become increasingly scarce. As to be expected, the common folks are more aware of this than are the so-called political and economic leaders. Perhaps this is because it is among the less affluent where most of the pain is being felt. However, it is working its way up the scale and will eventually be too obvious for even the elete to deny.

Food is really just another form of energy used to fuel our bodies or the bodies of other animals. It takes large amounts of petroleum and natural gas to run industrial style agriculture. When fossil fuels decline it has a direct negative impact on food production.

Saudi Arabia just announced that it will not increase its oil production as it had recently promised to do. The Saudis insist that they have abundant reserves, but there are many reasons to doubt them. Russia, the number 2 oil producer acknowledged that their has gone into decline. The writing is on the wall, and the message is - get ready for some very rough times ahead.

The Bare Knuckled Pundit · 04-21-2008, 09:41 AM

The Saudi announcement falls in line with what Matt Simmons proposed in his 2005 book, "Twilight In The Desert". He claims the Saudis and the rest of OPEC have been fudging the numbers about proven reserves and field production for the past decade and that they are near or may have already reached peak.

Daniel Yergan of Cambridge Energy believes instead of a global peak we will reach a global plateau. With recent discoveries offshore of Brazil, there is evidence that significant fields may still lie undiscovered. Additionally, with technological developments such as horizontal drilling and ultra-deep drilling, there is some hope that higher percentages of recovery may continue to develop. Currently producers are recovering between 30 to 40 percent of a field's contents. If you can continue to boost those recovery rates you may be able to forestall reaching peak, if only by a few years to a decade or two depending on the additional rate.

Anyone wanting to take a closer look at the prospects for replacing oil in the American economic diet should take a look at Robert Bryce's "Gusher of Lies". A quick, well-written, easily digestible analysis of the hype verses the reality of alternative fuels and their impact on the American energy mix.

For those interest in the evolving geopolitics of the new world energy order, I would strongly recommend Michael Klare's new, "Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet".

While God made America great, oil made it an economic and military superpower. With China and India increasingly competing for it globally, the US will be hard pressed to maintain it's economic superpower status as it struggles under the strain of higher oil costs and the transfer of massive amounts of its GDP to energy producers across the globe. While some point to alternative fuels as the Holy Grail to American energy independence, the reality is their costs and EIEO ratio (energy in to energy out) don't come close to competing with oil for running a modern society of several hundred million inhabitants.

Wheeldog · 04-21-2008, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bare Knuckled Pundit

The Saudi announcement falls in line with what Matt Simmons proposed in his 2005 book, "Twilight In The Desert". He claims the Saudis and the rest of OPEC have been fudging the numbers about proven reserves and field production for the past decade and that they are near or may have already reached peak. .............

.........While God made America great, oil made it an economic and military superpower. With China and India increasingly competing for it globally, the US will be hard pressed to maintain it's economic superpower status as it struggles under the strain of higher oil costs and the transfer of massive amounts of its GDP to energy producers across the globe. While some point to alternative fuels as the Holy Grail to American energy independence, the reality is their costs and EIEO ratio (energy in to energy out) don't come close to competing with oil for running a modern society of several hundred million inhabitants.

Well said. Expecting some miraculous breakthrough in energy technology to save the day is a false hope and does nothing to prepare us for the challenges that we are already begining to confront. It is time to stop hoping and start preparing. Time and tides wait for no one.

Wheeldog · 05-16-2008, 11:07 PM

Oil sets record near $128; pump price at high, too: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

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......"We would view any pullback in oil, regardless of the size or duration -- although a correction could be as large as 15 percent -- as an opportunity to re-establish long positions in oil before the summer," Goldman Sachs advised traders.

Translation: Buy when barrels go on sale, because prices are bound to keep heading higher.

And buy they did Friday. ...... Earlier in the session, prices surged to $127.82 a barrel, also a new high.

It was the eighth time in the past 10 sessions traders rewrote the record books, and the first time prices topped $127 a barrel.
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"It's ridiculous because I don't think this is going to bring the price down," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp., of the Energy Department's move.
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The addition of "300,000 barrels won't make a lot of difference," said Mir Yousufuddin, who monitors crude prices for the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The announcement came during a visit by Bush, who was in the kingdom to appeal for a more significant increase in production. Bernard Picchi, an energy analyst at research firm Wall Street Access, called the increase "a token amount" and said the effect on prices would have been different if Saudi Arabia had boosted production by 1 million or 1.5 million barrels a day.
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James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in Tampa, Fla., agreed that the moves by both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia were "insignificant" and would do little to dent the rally in oil prices. Like a number of other analysts, he believes prices are rising not because of a speculative bubble, but simply reflect finite supply and soaring global demand.

The price of a barrel of oil topped $127 today. The price moved up despite news of a fractional increase of production from Saudi Arabia and stopping oil going into the strategic reserve. This price is based on more than speculation. It is a clear signal that oil production is becoming severely tight. In other words - PEAK OIL!

GlobalSmiles · 05-17-2008, 01:54 AM

I'd like to point out that the future is bright. . .

Geotimes - April 2008 - Desert Power: A Solar Renaissance

Honda Worldwide | Fuel Cell

We have the future and energy independence from each other is right in front of us, we only need reach out.

A Solar Grand Plan: Scientific American

Wheeldog · 05-17-2008, 03:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlobalSmiles

I'd like to point out that the future is bright. . .

Geotimes - April 2008 - Desert Power: A Solar Renaissance

Honda Worldwide | Fuel Cell

We have the future and energy independence from each other is right in front of us, we only need reach out.

A Solar Grand Plan: Scientific American

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A massive switch from coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power plants to solar power plants could supply 69 percent of the U.S.’s electricity and 35 percent of its total energy by 2050.
A vast area of photovoltaic cells would have to be erected in the Southwest. Excess daytime energy would be stored as compressed air in underground caverns to be tapped during nighttime hours.
Large solar concentrator power plants would be built as well.
A new direct-current power transmission backbone would deliver solar electricity across the country.
But $420 billion in subsidies from 2011 to 2050 would be required to fund the infrastructure and make it cost-competitive.

Based on a source you cited, we will have to build an enormous expanse of solar collectors by 2050, develop a complex of compressed air caverns to trap captured energy and develop a massive DC electric transmission system on a nationwide scale. The whole thing would only cost an estimated $420 billion. The term "pie in the sky" comes to mind. Sorry, but I do not think it is going to happen - at least not in time to avert a virtual economic meltdown.

Even IF the solar collectors could be put in place and the complex of compressed air caverns developed, the shift from AC to DC power would be an overwhelming task. The original cost estimation would quickly be left in the dust as the project progressed. Think in terms of trillions of dollars rather than billions. Even then it would be much too late to save us from major dislocations now facing the country and the world. Peak Oil is now - not forty years in the future. It's like being in the final minute of the 4th quarter of a football game, and you are behind by three touchdowns. Even a hail mary pass will not save the day. The game will soon be over. The stadium lights will soon be turned off, and we will be left in the dark.

pug_ster · 05-17-2008, 10:53 AM

Personally, I think the most promising technology is oilgae, where you extract biodiesel from algae. It is cheap, you get carbon emission from a coal firing plant and semi treated waste water from the sewers with this type of algae and these algae will grow very fast. The only problem is that they haven't figured out how to mass produce this biodiesel cheaply yet.

GlobalSmiles · 05-17-2008, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wheeldog

Based on a source you cited, we will have to build an enormous expanse of solar collectors by 2050, develop a complex of compressed air caverns to trap captured energy and develop a massive DC electric transmission system on a nationwide scale. The whole thing would only cost an estimated $420 billion. The term "pie in the sky" comes to mind. Sorry, but I do not think it is going to happen - at least not in time to avert a virtual economic meltdown.

Even IF the solar collectors could be put in place and the complex of compressed air caverns developed, the shift from AC to DC power would be an overwhelming task. The original cost estimation would quickly be left in the dust as the project progressed. Think in terms of trillions of dollars rather than billions. Even then it would be much too late to save us from major dislocations now facing the country and the world. Peak Oil is now - not forty years in the future. It's like being in the final minute of the 4th quarter of a football game, and you are behind by three touchdowns. Even a hail mary pass will not save the day. The game will soon be over. The stadium lights will soon be turned off, and we will be left in the dark.

Your pessimism is disheartening, I tried to help you. Yes we will falter there is no doubt. We will not fail.

Wheeldog · 05-17-2008, 02:17 PM

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Originally Posted by GlobalSmiles

Your pessimism is disheartening, I tried to help you. Yes we will falter there is no doubt. We will not fail.

You misunderstand my point, GlobalSmiles. I certainly can understand your reaction re: apparent pessimism. However, I believe that one cannot succeed against formidiable odds unless he or she is willing to face the full implications of the situation. Holding onto a false hope that somehow we will come up with a miraculous substitute for oil and will be able to go on enjoying our present level of an enormously consumptive lifestyle only delays taking practical actions to deal with the challenges ahead. Believe it or not, I am trying to the best of my abilities to help you and others by laying out the realities ahead. I truly believe new technology will not pull us out of the hole left by declining oil reserves. It is tempting to hang onto the fantasy that there is a new and powerful source of energy just around the corner that will free us of any worries about the decline of oil and other fossil fuels. The truth is that there is no such source or technology that can come on line in time to fill the void. The only real-life, workable solution in the short-to-mid term (50+ yrs.) is to readjust our lives to consume far less energy and much less products that depend on oil. BUT I do believe we can do it.

GlobalSmiles · 05-17-2008, 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wheeldog

You misunderstand my point, GlobalSmiles. I certainly can understand your reaction re: apparent pessimism. However, I believe that one cannot succeed against formidiable odds unless he or she is willing to face the full implications of the situation. Holding onto a false hope that somehow we will come up with a miraculous substitute for oil and will be able to go on enjoying our present level of an enormously consumptive lifestyle only delays taking practical actions to deal with the challenges ahead. Believe it or not, I am trying to the best of my abilities to help you and others by laying out the realities ahead. I truly believe new technology will not pull us out of the hole left by declining oil reserves. It is tempting to hang onto the fantasy that there is a new and powerful source of energy just around the corner that will free us of any worries about the decline of oil and other fossil fuels. The truth is that there is no such source or technology that can come on line in time to fill the void. The only real-life, workable solution in the short-to-mid term (50+ yrs.) is to readjust our lives to consume far less energy and much less products that depend on oil. BUT I do believe we can do it.

Ok, I thought you were getting all Mad Max on me. I pretty much agree lots of people's present lifestyles are screwed. Cross country family won't be near as practical as it is even now. I see bikes and scooters becoming bigger in urban areas. Americans won't like it, but I don't think they'll have a choice if we are looking at 10$ gas in a decade or so. A/C and Heat ill suck to, drying lines for clothes might come back who knows. The answers are there now though no doubt they require intensive work. I believe this work will be done over urgently at this point too (already too far behind) and many problems will come from that, but we just might get to be witness of the most beautiful thing since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and thats completely renewable energy.