Could Belarus ever unite with Russia? - Political Forum

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · #1 (**permalink**) 02-27-2007, 11:54 AM

I used to think it might be possible for Belarus and Russia to unite, and possibly the Ukraine as well. I have seen now that it will probably be impossible for Russia and the Ukraine to unite, since half of that country is anti-Russian and pro-European.

However, what about Belarus. Found an old story on it.

http://newsfromrussia.com/main/2006/01/24/71698.html

Quote:

Russian, Belarusian presidents discuss long-planned union
22:45 2006-01-24

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, on Tuesday discussed ways add substance to the ambitious union agreement between their two former Soviet republics.

The 1996 agreement envisaged close political, economic and military ties, but the two nation's movement toward a declared a goal of creating a single country has been stalled.

Lukashenko has rejected Putin's integration proposal floated in 2002 under which Belarus would essentially be absorbed by Russia. And a plan to introduce the Russian ruble as the two nations' single currency starting in January 2005 has run into problems amid Belarusian officials' concerns that it would give Russia too much leverage over the nation of 10 million.

"Citizens of our nations are expecting a continuous expansion of the Russian-Belarusian integration," Putin said at the start of his talks with Lukashenko in St. Petersburg, according to the ITAR-Tass, Interfax and RIA Novosti news agencies.

Lukashenko, who has become a pariah in the West for his relentless crackdown on the opposition and independent media, hailed unification efforts.

"We have done a lot to make integration processes between our nations irreversible," Lukashenko said Tuesday. "There is no alternative to our unity", reports AP.
O.Ch.

However, in recent months the Belarussian Presidents seems to have had a great rift with Russia and denounced union between the two countries.

Brother Oz · #2 (**permalink**) 02-27-2007, 12:17 PM

I don't think reunification is likely, with two strong-willed Presidents who each want to keep all their power. But closer links I can definately see. Of course, if we're really looky then they'll be a velvet-style revolution, and Lukashenko will be out.

francois60 · #3 (**permalink**) 02-27-2007, 12:19 PM

Belarus and Russia, maybe. Russia and Ukraine, never, unless it's in the context of European unity. Ukraine's history of subjugation under both the Czars and Soviets is well remembered.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · #4 (**permalink**) 02-27-2007, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brother Oz

I don't think reunification is likely, with two strong-willed Presidents who each want to keep all their power. But closer links I can definately see. Of course, if we're really looky then they'll be a velvet-style revolution, and Lukashenko will be out.

I agree. Something tells me there will be some kind of velvet-style revolution around the corner for Belarus. Just a gut instinct.

Brother Oz · #5 (**permalink**) 02-27-2007, 12:31 PM

I don't think its' very likely right now... Lukashenko has no serious rivals, and the economy is okay thanks to the incredibly cheap energy they get from Russia. But I believe Russia is moving to sell at market price, which would be very bad for the Belarussan economy, and could lead to revolt.

francois60 · #6 (**permalink**) 02-27-2007, 01:57 PM

Nah, Belarus is too repressive for a Velvet Revolution to be likely anytime soon.

Also remember that the Eastern European revolutions took place mainly because Gorby allowed it and maybe even encouraged it. Putin is more like Brezhnev in that he's willing to intervene with all but military force to prevent states in the Russian sphere of influence from turning democratic.

Slartibartfas · #7 (**permalink**) 02-27-2007, 05:27 PM

Lukashenko has a problem. Yes he sits very well in his seat, his country could do worse in fact and people still support him. (at least a majority)

But Belarus is totally isolated and therefore 100% dependant on Russia. This might not have immediate consquences but might be a major problem for Lukashenko if Putin really wants to know it.

Brother Oz · #8 (**permalink**) 02-27-2007, 05:43 PM

Quote:

isnt Ukraine talking about joining NATO now?

I don't think so, the current leader is the anti-west one. Although he does share power kind of. I can't remember exactly how it works.

Troianii · #9 (**permalink**) 02-27-2007, 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brother Oz

I don't think so, the current leader is the anti-west one. Although he does share power kind of. I can't remember exactly how it works.

I thought that was one reason for him losing some popularity, but I don't know much about Turkish politics.

SubZero · #10 (**permalink**) 03-03-2007, 11:22 AM

i think that our country will not soon unite with Belarus because mr.Lukashenko is very likes hir power
besides it is rather difficult to support such economic as Belarus because it's really depends on ours
but i fully support the main idea about union between 3 great slav countries(Ukraine,Belarus,Russia). If we could unite the whole world will fear us

)