Kelvin

On January 1, 2007 Romania became a full EU member state. This is a significant event for the Romanian people and perhaps for the whole Europe as well. Abstracting from the positive impact of Eurointegration, let’s ask ourselves the question, “What else will it bring in if Romania joins the European elite club?”
We’ll not dwell on common and well-known problems, such as the lowest living standards in Europe, an uncompetitive economy, patriarchal agriculture, significant blunders in the state policy of Bucharest as well as everyday practice of national minority rights protection proclaimed by Constitution.
Joining the European Union this January, Romania “brings” along a number of unsolved problems with its neighbors-namely with Hungarians. It primarily concerns national minority rights protection in Romania, imperfection of national legislation that has already forced European Parliamentarians to put Romania to put Romania on the list of countries subjected to monitoring.
We’ll go here only into one aspect that allows us to foresee the foreign policy of the future EU member state. And thereupon let’s ask ourselves, what hides beneath Romania’s complaint to the UN International Court of Justice in Hague against Ukraine about the delimitation of continental shelf and the exclusive economic zones in the Black Sea? This appeal proves nothing but Romania’s strong desire to get the disputed area of the Black Sea potentially rich in natural resources (primarily energy) parted in its favour. Unfortunately, the Treaty of Friendship, Neighborliness and Cooperation and the Treaty on regime of Ukrainian-Romanian state border, cooperation and mutual assistance on border matters, signed in 1997 and 2003 accordingly, haven’t removed the so-called “sensitive issues” in relations between two countries. Romania didn’t give up its intentions which for obvious reasons had no chance to be realized in the USSR era. And was Romania able to compete against the USSR? The answer is clear. – No, it wasn’t.
And what is the current situation? The Soviet Union doesn’t exist any more. The level of relations between Ukraine and Russia can hardly afford ground for the first one to reckon on Russia’s support in the settlement of the dispute (it was at least until recently considering the West – oriented foreign policy of Kyiv). The forthcoming EU membership of Romania is a closed issue, and it’s a rather convincing argument in Romania’s favour in its dispute with Ukraine. It’s no secret that Romanian counterpart reckons on definite advantages, i.e. to enlist the support of some influential European countries. It was largely just a “green light” on Romania’s road towards EU membership that spurred it on to more decisive actions, i.e. to appeal to the UN International Court of Justice and not to rely only on its own strength.
There is no doubt that controversial issues in relations between Ukraine and Romania are expected to become immediately an extra burden to the European Union in future. But there comes an apt question, “Does the European Union need
it?” Realizing its strategy of eastwards enlargement, the EU faced serious difficulties that caused it to make a decision which was reasonable in that situation, namely to block the Eurointegration process after Romania and Bulgaria obtained membership.
One shouldn’t be an expert to understand that declared by official Bucharest good intentions to settle problems with Ukraine on the principles of international public law don’t correspond to reality. Active propaganda is conducted in the Romanian mass media that distort everything. At the same time the government holds a rather pragmatic position of “non-interference” into mass-media activity, referring to freedom of speech and independence of press that supposedly exist in the country. As numerous publications in Romanian mass media show, there is along with neither any attempt to give an unbiased assessment of the situation, nor any effort to consider it more deeply and thoroughly. But what for, in fact the main objective is to create public approval both inside Romania and abroad. And that is the aim. Let’s give due regard to Romania – it succeeds in it to some extent. In addition Bucharest conducts in parallel active diplomatic activity in this direction. As proverb says, constant dropping wears away a stone.
It’s no secret that as far as in stage of active bilateral Ukrainian-Romanian negotiations Romania started in fact, not in word preparing to launch its complaint to the ICJ – neither naturally declaring its real targets, nor making its plans public.
Having appealed to the ICJ, Romania actually prejudiced the fulfillment of obligations formalized by corresponding international legislation. Thus, Bucharest forces revision of the borders agreements signed by Romania and the Soviet Union in 1948, i.e. the Protocol for the drawing of the borderline between the Popular Republic of Romania and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
Let’s look at the repercussions that could occur if the ICJ decides in favour of Romania (though there is little probability of such a judgment, but it exists theoretically). Romania is far from being the only one country that is hatching out territorial claims against the neighbouring country, in this particular case against Ukraine. The examples are not far to seek. Let’s take for instance Russia (Kurils or the former Konigsberg, nowadays Kaliningrad). But it doesn’t seem to occur to anyone (neither Japan, nor Germany) to make complaints against Russia in order to consider the existing territorial claims. There is plenty of similar situations in Europe: let’s take just French Alsace, or Polish Silesia, or Czech Sudeten, or Macedonia. Everyone understands that inadequate actions are fraught with a precedent and produce a knock-on effect that will have rather undesirable consequences not only for certain countries, but for the whole regions, if not for the continent. Some experts view this problem in such a way and estimate the policy of the official Bucharest as an unfriendly act towards Ukraine, moreover as territorial claims against the neighbouring country that pursues balanced and peaceable policy towards one and all countries.
Many Romanian analysts use as an argument the fact that bilateral Romanian-Soviet border delimitation agreements were reached in 1948 under the Stalin regime and pressure. Accordingly Ostriv Zmiyinyy (known as Snake or Serpent’s Island) in particular passed to the USSR, and later to Ukraine that become the successor of the Soviet Union. Herewith it should be noted the unsavoury, to say the least, role of Romania during the Second World War which the history is dumb on. But it is done quite deliberately. It isn’t difficult to guess what the reasons are.
The fact speaks for itself – without waiting for the ICJ judgment in the case, Romania has already signed memorandums with world’s leading oil producing companies on geological prospecting and oil and gas production in the areas adjacent to Ostriv Zmiyinyy that belongs to Ukraine. It is worth mentioning here a rather pragmatic approach and self-confidence of Romanian counterpart which reckons that such a far- reaching policy or maybe the oil magnates concerned can indirectly influence the ICJ Judges opinion.
Due should be given to Bucharest that doesn’t idle away its time and restrict itself to such a limited arsenal in its political armoury aimed at realizing the only one, but cherished hope to win the case in the ICJ. It’s not for the first year that Romania has been actively working with foreign lawyers recognized in international legal practice (by the way, the judges of the ICJ recently) having spared not-so-small budgetary means for it.
Just a question: Would the EU support Romania in its thinly veiled territorial claims to Ukraine, and would the Republic of Moldova which is called Bessarabia in Bucharest be the next?
In the EU ready to take upon itself in future new problems of bilateral relations not only between its members, but between the other regional countries too? Won’t such accents in the EU policy become harmful to solving the problematic issues in internal relations between EU countries and hinder their further EU integration?
If so, whether European officials will understand that standing at the crossroads in order to determine its foreign policy objectives Kiev can thereby be deprived of the choice of an alternative as such…

Slartibartfas

I see no way that the EU will support any expansionist territory claims of a member state. If Romania should really try to annex the region against the will of the Ukraine, the opposite will be even the case. Romania will have to justify its own steps in Brussels, and will most likely face punishment for any region destabilizing nationalist expansionism.

The EU is working hard to establish a well working "neighbor"-policy. The Ukraine is an important part of it. No way that the EU will sacrifice the good relations to the Ukraine just because some in Romania dream of a greater nation. Especially Poland will be a fierce defender of these good relations to the Ukraine.

Romania is a new member. If its already now starting to lay fire after not being even a whole year within the EU, it will damage its reputation severely. Even though of course have to stay together, but not for the sake of expansionism.

The EU is interested in a stable and flourishing neighborhood. It will therefore try to help solving conflicts that exist there. For example at the Balkan. The EU has a very large interest that the Kosovo issue could be settled in a way that both sides could somehow at least live with it. The same for Bosnia. There is no question that if the Balkan nations can overcome their problems they will get the chance to become EU members to eventually in case they want so. Slovenia shows them why they should be eager to try so. (Of course does the EU have to settle its own constitutional problems before any new enlargement also)

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Kelvin

And what if the the Hague Court will take a decision in the interest of Romania?

Roberto

I think Romania understands that all the same it will not win litigation, but as for receiving some advantage it really can. Ukraine can go on concessions in some questions, and whether it is necessary, but if Ukraine is planning to enter EU then what for it should concede, if it is not then it is necessary to get support of Russia.
And Russia having good trumps due to its power resources can affect not only Romania but also on the whole EU.

Slartibartfas

I simply dont know enough about this case. But I can not imagine that the EU will do something that will break up all bridges to the Ukraine. That would be against their own interests.

But I would say that if the court in the Hague decides for Romania, than the Ukraine will accept it. After all as far as I know can this court only start a case when both parties accept it. It would be odd, if the Ukraine accepts the court, but its judgment only then when it is in its own interest.

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Sebelius for VP, not Hillary

Well the propsects for the Ukraine's entry into EU are pretty slim anyway, aren't they?

Slartibartfas

Yes, but the potential for admission to the single market is considerable.

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Sebelius for VP, not Hillary

Can that be blocked by Romania?

Slartibartfas

Yes. But vetoing causes high political costs for a country.

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Voland

The EU has been remarkably successful in removing or helping to remove pretty much all claims and conflicts about territory in the EU through cooperation and open borders.
( Germany/ France, Germany / Poland, Austria/Italy etc.,)
The EU would only support a border correction between the two countries if both sides agreed in a bilateral treaty on it. Otherwise Brussels would point to the tools of european integration which made borders dissappear in a practical sense elsewhere. Even if Ukraine is not even a candidate yet there are many fields to cooperate and to bring the region closer......