Even the International Energy Agency, which mulls global oil issues on behalf of Canada and 25 other developed countries including the United States, Great Britain and Japan, is exploring "barbarization" scenarios in which billions of people starve, national governments collapse, economies are forced to deindustrialize, and many regions of the world return to "semi-tribal or feudal social structures." "Oil wars are certainly not out of the question," says the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Originally Posted by Wheeldog Get ready for oil supplies to dwindle, experts warn I highly recommend the above article as a view of the dark side of possible post peak oil possibilities. It appears that the governments of Canada and the U.S. are seriously exploring the chances that there could be extreme impacts following the point of maximum oil production.

Originally Posted by Wheeldog Get ready for oil supplies to dwindle, experts warn I highly recommend the above article as a view of the dark side of possible post peak oil possibilities. It appears that the governments of Canada and the U.S. are seriously exploring the chances that there could be extreme impacts following the point of maximum oil production.

Wheeldog,

Several quick points.

1) Professor Aleklett believes that "peak oil" could be reached as soon as 2008. According to IEA data, there is enough spare capacity to accommodate growth in global oil demand (averaging near 2% per year) for at least 2 more years, if no further production capacity is brought online. The peak will almost certainly be reached farther down the road (probably one or more decades).

2) Initially, if the Peak Oil arguments hold true, the slide in production should be gradual, though better production technology might lead to a delay in reaching the peak and a sharper slide afterward. If that is the case, then one might see a situation more analogous to the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks: spot shortages, some rationing, restrictions on building temperatures, reduced speed limits, and a slowing of the economy. A meaningful economic slowdown could, initially, dampen demand for oil.

However, unlike the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks, the shortages would be chronic in nature. The darker dangers cited in the piece would probably be a medium- to longer-term threat, starting first in the developing world where political and economic infrastructure is perhaps less adaptable, particularly areas that have had a history of ethnic rivalry and strife.

3) The world has abundant natural gas. Natural gas could mitigate the situation or postpone it, if it provides for a growing share of energy demand. However, just as oil is concentrated disproportionately in a few locations, the same holds true with respect to natural gas. Russia possesses 27% of the world's known reserves (as opposed to Saudi Arabia's holding 20% of the world's known oil reserves). A Peak Oil situation might well encourage energy nationalism with the states holding the resources putting their own interests ahead of market-based factors. In addition, like oil, natural gas is a finite resource.

4) All said, it is in the U.S. interest and that of the world's major oil-consuming nations to develop a comprehensive energy policy. There is likely still ample time for alternatives to be refined so as to avoid the worst consequences of a Peak Oil situation. Indeed, Western Europe's push against climate change could well provide additional impetus for an aggressive research and development into fossil fuel alternatives. Of course, geopolitical shocks could cause periodic disruptions prior to then.

Originally Posted by perdidochas SInce the beginning of the oil industry, people have been saying that in the near future that we will run out of oil. We keep finding reserves to push that back. Conservatively, with current reserves, we have oil until 2100.

4) All said, it is in the U.S. interest and that of the world's major oil-consuming nations to develop a comprehensive energy policy. There is likely still ample time for alternatives to be refined so as to avoid the worst consequences of a Peak Oil situation. Indeed, Western Europe's push against climate change could well provide additional impetus for an aggressive research and development into fossil fuel alternatives. Of course, geopolitical shocks could cause periodic disruptions prior to then. donsutherland1

4) All said, it is in the U.S. interest and that of the world's major oil-consuming nations to develop a comprehensive energy policy. There is likely still ample time for alternatives to be refined so as to avoid the worst consequences of a Peak Oil situation. Indeed, Western Europe's push against climate change could well provide additional impetus for an aggressive research and development into fossil fuel alternatives. Of course, geopolitical shocks could cause periodic disruptions prior to then. donsutherland1

Originally Posted by Wheeldog You make excellent points and have obviously done some indepth study of the issue. I agree with almost all of what you have said, although I am less sanguine regarding the long-term abundance of natural gas as a substitute source of energy. Regardless of whether oil production peaks next year or in the next fifteen years, is of relatively minor significance. It is virtually certain that it will happen and equally assured that it will test the very fabric of human civilization. The real question is, will we have the foresight to prepare for and, hopefully, mitigate the impacts that will follow. Although it may not sound like it, I am basically an optomist. I spent the better part of two decades living with Native Alaskans attempting to understand their capacity for adapting to extreme environmental challenges. From them I learned that the most fundemental survival tool is your attitude. If you are able to face and objectively assess a threat without succumbing to panic or denial and are absolutely resolved to overcome it, the chances are you will be successful. That lesson has applicability to the challenge posed by peaking oil resources.

Mexican Company Predicts End of Oil Mexico, Jul 27 (Prensa Latina) Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) announced that oil reserves may run out in seven years.