I enjoyed this piece and I wanted to see if anyone else found it interesting.


Imagine a world in recession, where oil costs $50 per barrel. Which economies would be most affected?

There are some obvious losers. In Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, oil accounts for 90 per cent of exports, which in turn represent nearly two-thirds of the economy’s output. Indeed the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries are more dependent on oil now than when the oil price fell sharply in 1985-86 and 1997-98. Exports plummeted in value after the Opec basket price fell from $27 a barrel to $13.50, and from $18.70 to $12.30, respectively. But in 1985 and 1997 oil exports represented just 21 per cent of Opec’s gross domestic product, whereas they now represent 36 per cent.


LINK

__________________
STUPIDITY Is The Deliberate Cultivation Of Ignorance

TRUTH exist, only a falsehood has to be invented.

Please Visit My Blog http://studiesandobservations.blogspot.com/

Most people do not appreciate just how delicate the world economy is. And it must have oil to operate. Could oil drop to $50? Absolutely. However, it would probably mean that the economies of the industrialized West had really gone down the tolet. In relative terms, oil exporting countries would likely be better off than most countries. OPEC and other major oil producers know that the richer nations of the world cannot hope to survive without oil, so consuming nations have no choice but to buy from producers. They literally have us over a barrel (of oil).

The "Peak Oil" issue is a new version of the Malthusian Trap...it remains to be seen if we can "invent" or innovate ourselves out of it the way we did with agriculture.

I wish I could be more optimistic, but I fear that is a pie in the sky hope. The green revolution could not have taken place without cheap and abundant oil and natural gas. It was and is heavily dependent on hydrocarbon petroleum and gas used in synthetic fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation systems, mechanized farm machinery, etc. Indeed, as oil supplies dwindle agriculture will be heavily impacted. There is literally no practical substitute for oil and natural gas in modern agriculture.

Moving from oil to some other form of energy and raw materials cannot happen in a few years - if at all. Modern society as it exists today consumes enormous quantities of petroleum in virtually every phase of life. It is difficult to think of anything we need and use that doesn't involve petroleum in some way. Replacing it in any significant way under the best of circumstances would require decades of enormous effort and, unfortunately, a reduced standard of living. That may sound fatalistic, but it is reality.

The idea first is to lessen the dependence on fossil fuels by achieving much greater efficiency and relying on more electric...this will slow the "peak" date...and give us time to develop new technologies and integrate them.

I share some of your fear, but never underestimate human ingenuity when backed into a corner. I have nothing to base this on, but faith, but I think some of the reason we have not developed another energy source already is because we have not had to...it really is that simple. Why invest billions in research and development of alternative energies when oil is so plentiful and relatively cheap.

As oil prices rise the market will force more money to go toward R&D, as it already is.

The above excerpt is from the BBC News. When you access the article check the list on the right side of the page for additional articles on the subject.

As you may have noticed, I have a particular interest in the issue of petroleum and gas production and its implications for modern society. Based on my readings and research, I have to conclude we are at or very near the pinnacle of world oil production soon to be followed by maximum natural gas production. I get no pleasure in this conclusion. However, I believe that the longer we avoid substantively dealing with the major impacts that are already beginning to be evident the worse will be the affects on our lives.

I admire the natural ingenuity of people when faced with challenges, but advanced societies have risen and fallen in the past despite the best of efforts. I see no reason to believe, despite our technological achievements, that we are somehow immune from a similar fate. If anything, we are perhaps at greater risk due to the complexity of the modern system.

Oil is literally the fuel which powers modern civilization. It is so basic to society that it is usually taken for granted. I honestly do not believe that there is any magic bullet that will miracously take the place of oil. Yes, we can and should develop whatever alternatives that we can to partially fill the widening gap between oil demand and oil production. However, there is little doubt that life as we have known it over the past several decades will likely be extremely difficult to maintain as oil and natural gas become increasingly expensive and scarce.