Economic forecasts good for America - Political Forum

Troianii · 02-23-2007, 03:22 PM

Economic growth and government spending looks good on Bush's budgets, which expect to show a budget surplus by 2012 while maintaining (comparatively) strong economic growth.

The chart below shows that, under Bush's economic policies, the economic growth (as a %) has exceeded the growth of the budget deficit. With this economic growth the budget deficit has shrunk and forecasts suggests that it will continue to shrink and will become a budget surplus by 2012.

Budget of the United States Government, FY 2008

Summary Tables

Brother Oz · 02-23-2007, 04:07 PM

By 2012? In 5 years? And he's already had it for several. Economies are supposed to run deficits for no more than 2 or 3 years, then run a surplus to pay it off. You'll have to run a surplus for about a decade to pay this off.

Troianii · 02-23-2007, 04:11 PM

Yes, you're probably right, but the forecast shows growth strong enough to more than make up for the debt accumulated during the Bush Administration which is fairly good when you take into account the recession.

At this point, I'm just happy to see that it's getting better, not worse. The budget deficit is decreasing and the economy is growing strong.

Daewoo · 02-23-2007, 09:39 PM

You would think that people would have caught onto this shell trick by now since bush has done it EVERY YEAR. He releases a massive budget, with a massive deficit, and then releases a "projection" (which is a work of fantasy) showing how we will have a balanced budget in a few years if we all just agree to his idiotic spending THIS year.

Before, we were going to have a balanced budget by 2006, then it was 2009, now it is 2012. I know that the american public is generally ignorant and has the attention span of a 2 yr old, but I did think they had more intelligence than a popsicle stick. I was wrong. As usual I have VASTLY overestimated the intelligence of the American public.

Go through and divide some little numbers by some big numbers.

What bush is doing is making a HUGE mess, and then he is going to leave it to the next person in the white house.

george.d · 02-23-2007, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brother Oz

By 2012? In 5 years? And he's already had it for several. Economies are supposed to run deficits for no more than 2 or 3 years, then run a surplus to pay it off. You'll have to run a surplus for about a decade to pay this off.

With a payment imbalance like the US is running, government driving GDP with debt and increasing military spending while reducing federal taxation and increasing local taxation, surplus will not be achieved without a serious, negative economic disruption to break that cycle.

Troianii · 02-24-2007, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daewoo

You would think that people would have caught onto this shell trick by now since bush has done it EVERY YEAR. He releases a massive budget, with a massive deficit, and then releases a "projection" (which is a work of fantasy) showing how we will have a balanced budget in a few years if we all just agree to his idiotic spending THIS year.

Before, we were going to have a balanced budget by 2006, then it was 2009, now it is 2012. I know that the american public is generally ignorant and has the attention span of a 2 yr old, but I did think they had more intelligence than a popsicle stick. I was wrong. As usual I have VASTLY overestimated the intelligence of the American public.

Go through and divide some little numbers by some big numbers.

What bush is doing is making a HUGE mess, and then he is going to leave it to the next person in the white house.

It really is too bad that the American public has a short memory. Let me lay out for you what they are forgeting:

1. Record economic growth, in spite of inheriting a receding economy U.S. economy posts strongest growth in nearly 20 years - Oct. 30, 2003
2. Tax receipt growth under Bush. After the problems of a receding economy and the obvbious effects on tax receipts, Bush signed new economic bills into law in 2003. Tax receipts, below 1800 billion then, are now up to 2540 billion. That's almost a 50% tax receipt growth in only a few years, while cutting taxes.
3. Our budget deficit is less than half of what it was a few years ago, and has reached such a state by cutting taxes, not raising them.
4. Federal tax receipts have increased by almost 50% since the 2003 economic changes. States tax receipts have seen an even greater increase.

There is no trick. The economy is growing faster than any in the industrialized world. The budget deficit HAS been closing and is still closing. And the projections haven't been far off, they've been fairly accurate.

Daewoo · 02-24-2007, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Troianii

It really is too bad that the American public has a short memory. Let me lay out for you what they are forgeting:

1. Record economic growth, in spite of inheriting a receding economy U.S. economy posts strongest growth in nearly 20 years - Oct. 30, 2003
2. Tax receipt growth under Bush. After the problems of a receding economy and the obvbious effects on tax receipts, Bush signed new economic bills into law in 2003. Tax receipts, below 1800 billion then, are now up to 2540 billion. That's almost a 50% tax receipt growth in only a few years, while cutting taxes.
3. Our budget deficit is less than half of what it was a few years ago, and has reached such a state by cutting taxes, not raising them.
4. Federal tax receipts have increased by almost 50% since the 2003 economic changes. States tax receipts have seen an even greater increase.

There is no trick. The economy is growing faster than any in the industrialized world. The budget deficit HAS been closing and is still closing. And the projections haven't been far off, they've been fairly accurate.

IIRC we had this conversation before and when I pointed out that if you subtract deficit spending and associated flowthrough, all those positives vanish. When you were unable to refute that, you said something about it not being worth it and refused to furtehr discuss the topic. If we go down this road again, are you prepared for a discussion, or are you just going to leave with a cheap parting shot when your position is proven indefensible, then come back and post the same old BS a couple weeks later??

I have limited time and do not want to waste time debating with somebody who will not bother even trying to defend their position.

george.d · 02-24-2007, 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Troianii

It really is too bad that the American public has a short memory. Let me lay out for you what they are forgeting:

1. Record economic growth, in spite of inheriting a receding economy U.S. economy posts strongest growth in nearly 20 years - Oct. 30, 2003
2. Tax receipt growth under Bush. After the problems of a receding economy and the obvbious effects on tax receipts, Bush signed new economic bills into law in 2003. Tax receipts, below 1800 billion then, are now up to 2540 billion. That's almost a 50% tax receipt growth in only a few years, while cutting taxes.
3. Our budget deficit is less than half of what it was a few years ago, and has reached such a state by cutting taxes, not raising them.
4. Federal tax receipts have increased by almost 50% since the 2003 economic changes. States tax receipts have seen an even greater increase.

There is no trick. The economy is growing faster than any in the industrialized world. The budget deficit HAS been closing and is still closing. And the projections haven't been far off, they've been fairly accurate.

Didn’t we just do this dance in a prior thread? Government spending based on debt with flow-through driving the economy to GDP gains? Federal tax revenues corresponding without tax increases left to state and muni implementation with decreased state revenue sharing? Federal budgets designed with non-budgetary supplementary spending directed at foreign policy military operations? The comptroller of the US stating it's not sustainable? Basic single entry bookkeeping.

Slartibartfas · 02-25-2007, 04:05 AM

The economic growth forecasts for this year are indeed very interesting. If it hits reality, the EU will surpass the US growth slightly again. I only can hope the crises of 2001 has been overcome by now.

george.d · 02-25-2007, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slartibartfas

The economic growth forecasts for this year are indeed very interesting. If it hits reality, the EU will surpass the US growth slightly again. I only can hope the crises of 2001 has been overcome by now.

From I can determine the EU isn't driving their GDP with unsustainable debt and subsequent flow-through as the US does. A couple of countries yes, but overall growth seems to be generated by the private sector.

When looking at economic growth numbers for China, other developing Asian countries and Russia, the 'West' is not doing all that well considering their migration to service economies.