Slartibartfas

At this ASEAN meeting, an important charta has been created. It draws a future of the 40 years old block, that differentiates from its past.

ASEAN shall, according to the paper, transform itself from a concensus driven loose comunity to a rules driven entity. It seems the member countries of ASEAN want to enter the road of integration. The first step will be the foundation of an "ASEAN community", hosting a real single market like the one in Europe. The details for it will be worked out within a year from now. But it shall become reallity in two stages until 2015.

ASEAN shall acquire a legal personality.

Another important point is, that in future, there will be the possibility that countries make majority decissions on certain issues. And that countries that do not comply to ASEAN rules, will be possible subject of countermeasures, that can go as far as expulsion.

After this ASEAN community is fully established the members have expressed the intend to go even further. The next step would be then an ASEAN Union.



It seems that ASEAN is the most likely candidate that could end the uniqueness of the EU. A good thing. And when possible South American overcomes its current problems it might become number 3 in the club of supranationals.... Ok thats speculation. But its encouraging...

Brother Oz

I'm not sure whether this really means they're looking at an EU type thing, but whatever it is, it's a good step. You don't have wars with your neighbour when your economies are solidly enmeshed.

__________________
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Slartibartfas

Yes, there lie worlds between EU and ASEAN. Thats right.

But the point is, you can not introduce a real tight "single market" like the EU has one without a tight community. ASEAN has said that it aims to reach that level by 2015. Furthermore, one can already see the first glimpses of a political dimension. It looks like ASEAN shall become a platform in the fight against terrorism in its memberstates.

And what I find very interesting is, that the club explained that it will make its own charta obligatory for its members. That means ASEAN demands its memberstates to be democratic. This nearly programs a conflict with Birma. We will see what will happen. Either nothing, or Birma will be expulsed out of Asean, or perhaps they could push the country really towards democratic reforms.

You know when the ones at power are only remotely rational, they can not ignore the power of economic arguments. (Have the advantages of a single market and make reforms, or get kicked out and fall back into isolation)


I did not suggest that ASEAN will be an EU tomorrow, there are also signficant differences. But it seems that it wants to enter the way of integration now. And that it does real steps to launch this way.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary

In Europe, it seemed that the political will to unite was greater than the economic necessity to to do so. I wonder though, how much ASEAN has to gain economically, from any kind of unified market. One wonders if some states would be better negotiating their own trade tarrifs, and their own monetary and fiscal policy than having a united one with little control over it.

I read an argument by Krugman about the economic benefit of the the EU to its member states. Krugman's argument was that states have to already have a high amount of trade between them, in order for the benefits (elimination of transaction costs and uncertainty caused by fluctuating exchange rates) to offset the losses of a loss in control over monetary and fiscal policy.

I guess I'll ask the obvious question. What do Southeast Asian nations gain from ASEAN, other than the elimination of trade barriers among each other?

Slartibartfas

A point that might be a good one is the fact that the ASEAN members lie next to two major uprising blocks: China and India. Even though ASEAN cooperates with China I doubt they will make them ever a real member.
So the point is, if those ASEAN states want to have any weight in future negotiations, they have to share powers in order to not going under between those major blocks.
The high trade amount you are talking about will be probably reached through the tariff union. Just wait.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary

I'm curious. What would an example be of something ASEAN could accomplish as bloc (when trading with India or China) that they could not achieve if they were bargaining merely as individual nations?

Slartibartfas

Difficult to say. But its basic logic that a block 5 or 10 times the size of an average memberstate (in BSP), will be heard more and better than a single memberstate.
When considering that ASEAN is surrounded by giants like India and China, size does matter.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary

Guess you have a point there. However, you are making the case for a trading union and not an economic or a political one.

By the way, what's BSP?

Slartibartfas

Sorry, wrong translation. Its not BSP, its GNP in English. (or GNI)

Well, if they want to raise a real single market as they claim, I would say they'd need at least an economic union.