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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2007, 05:05 AM
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The Rise of China and the Future of the West

The rise of China will undoubtedly be one of the great dramas of the twenty-first century. China's extraordinary economic growth and active diplomacy are already transforming East Asia, and future decades will see even greater increases in Chinese power and influence. But exactly how this drama will play out is an open question. Will China overthrow the existing order or become a part of it? And what, if anything, can the United States do to maintain its position as China rises?

Some observers believe that the American era is coming to an end, as the Western-oriented world order is replaced by one increasingly dominated by the East. The historian Niall Ferguson has written that the bloody twentieth century witnessed "the descent of the West" and "a reorientation of the world" toward the East. Realists go on to note that as China gets more powerful and the United States' position erodes, two things are likely to happen: China will try to use its growing influence to reshape the rules and institutions of the international system to better serve its interests, and other states in the system -- especially the declining hegemon -- will start to see China as a growing security threat. The result of these developments, they predict, will be tension, distrust, and conflict, the typical features of a power transition. In this view, the drama of China's rise will feature an increasingly powerful China and a declining United States locked in an epic battle over the rules and leadership of the international system. And as the world's largest country emerges not from within but outside the established post-World War II international order, it is a drama that will end with the grand ascendance of China and the onset of an Asian-centered world order.

That course, however, is not inevitable. The rise of China does not have to trigger a wrenching hegemonic transition. The U.S.-Chinese power transition can be very different from those of the past because China faces an international order that is fundamentally different from those that past rising states confronted. China does not just face the United States; it faces a Western-centered system that is open, integrated, and rule-based, with wide and deep political foundations. The nuclear revolution, meanwhile, has made war among great powers unlikely -- eliminating the major tool that rising powers have used to overturn international systems defended by declining hegemonic states. Today's Western order, in short, is hard to overturn and easy to join.

This unusually durable and expansive order is itself the product of farsighted U.S. leadership. After World War II, the United States did not simply establish itself as the leading world power. It led in the creation of universal institutions that not only invited global membership but also brought democracies and market societies closer together. It built an order that facilitated the participation and integration of both established great powers and newly independent states. (It is often forgotten that this postwar order was designed in large part to reintegrate the defeated Axis states and the beleaguered Allied states into a unified international system.) Today, China can gain full access to and thrive within this system. And if it does, China will rise, but the Western order -- if managed properly -- will live on.

As it faces an ascendant China, the United States should remember that its leadership of the Western order allows it to shape the environment in which China will make critical strategic choices. If it wants to preserve this leadership, Washington must work to strengthen the rules and institutions that underpin that order -- making it even easier to join and harder to overturn. U.S. grand strategy should be built around the motto "The road to the East runs through the West." It must sink the roots of this order as deeply as possible, giving China greater incentives for integration than for opposition and increasing the chances that the system will survive even after U.S. relative power has declined.

The United States' "unipolar moment" will inevitably end. If the defining struggle of the twenty-first century is between China and the United States, China will have the advantage. If the defining struggle is between China and a revived Western system, the West will triumph.

China's Rise has nothing to do with the West !
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Old 12-29-2007, 07:57 PM
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Of course it does. China is interdependent with the US. A good chunk of her economy depends on export to the US, without it, she would lose her growth.
Plus, her middle ground between marcantile/free market is a western idea.
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Old 12-29-2007, 08:14 PM
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Yiqin,
Two different populations as large and economically significant cannot exist on the same planet without dramatically affecting one another. The trick is not to see it as a competition. In my opinion, it will all work out better for all of our descendants if it is an evolution rather than a contest. If we can learn from each other instead of competing, we both will change in ways not foreseeable to either of us.
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Old 12-31-2007, 02:57 AM
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Hey Yigin, we must not forgot that we are working for the US and Europe.
The Chinese economy depends on Manifacturing finished products to the US and Europe, and the Indian Economy is dependent on the IT and Software exports the Europe and the US.
Our Markets need more time to mature, and its too early to say anything yet. But, sure given another generation i.e. another 60-90 years, we will surely be on top.
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Old 12-31-2007, 05:48 AM
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In 40 years, China will be in pension crisis.
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In Russia is freedom of speech. In America is also freedom after speech. -- Yakov Smirnoff
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Old 12-31-2007, 06:16 AM
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Pension in China is your children taking care of you, not something that is funded by the state.
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Old 01-02-2008, 11:20 PM
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Indeed, not funded by the state. Yet in due time it will be. Just give it some more years or decades. Today, in rural regions family and children still take care of their elderly.
In the future things will change and the PRC gov will have to address more the welfare issues to avoid turmoil at home.
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