If US went to war with China, what will happen? - Page 3 - Political Forum

iTaliAN_ICe · 09-01-2007, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W.E.B. Du Bois

Naw. You see China's air force and navy are extremely obsolescent. Most of those units are 50's era technology. We're talking 1991 Gulf War casualties.

That could be. You probably know more about the subject than me.

I did read that the PLAN intends to have most of it's older ships replaced by 2025, but it was on Wikipedia without a clear citation, so I question whether that's true or not. Even if, I'm sure our own navy will have been updated and be significantly more powerful by then.

Bradgriff · 09-01-2007, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W.E.B. Du Bois

Naw. You see China's air force and navy are extremely obsolescent. Most of those units are 50's era technology. We're talking 1991 Gulf War casualties.

If they got jumpy and used some of these you would need to revise that Gulf War casualties projection Chinese Nuclear Weapons & Space Programme - SinoDefence.com
goes without saying though, not disputing anything you say. The nuclear sub with the 12 warheads kind of scares me living in the California state capital

Wheeldog · 09-01-2007, 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W.E.B. Du Bois

Naw. You see China's air force and navy are extremely obsolescent. Most of those units are 50's era technology. We're talking 1991 Gulf War casualties.

I have to strongly disagree with you. China has a fairly sophisticated military with a powerful nuclear capability and long range missles. Even if their ability to directly strike the continental U.S. was limited, they could wreak havoic on us indirectly by attacking our energy lifelines. We have critical strategic interests scattered around the globe that are tempting targets.

China holds an enormously powerful weapon that could virtually collapse the U.S. with little or no physical damage to itself. All they have to do is dump their cache of U.S. treasuries, dollars and other debt instruments onto the maket, and it would bring down our economy. In case that may not sound too threatening, try to imagine returning to the days of the Great Depression - only far worse.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · 09-01-2007, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iTaliAN_ICe

That could be. You probably know more about the subject than me.

I did read that the PLAN intends to have most of it's older ships replaced by 2025, but it was on Wikipedia without a clear citation, so I question whether that's true or not. Even if, I'm sure our own navy will have been updated and be significantly more powerful by then.

I think China can replace most of its old ships by 2025. It's amazing the speed with which they have created an advanced class of frigate (054A).

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · 09-01-2007, 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bradgriff

If they got jumpy and used some of these you would need to revise that Gulf War casualties projection Chinese Nuclear Weapons & Space Programme - SinoDefence.com
goes without saying though, not disputing anything you say

Well if they ever "got jumpy" and lit up Los Angeles, Seattle, Portland and San Diego, the US' response would be to end Chinese history by ending China herself.

More realistically, one might wonder if China would use tactical nuclear missiles on US carrier battlegroups. This could also lead to a path of fighting which China gets hurt very badly (read nuked) so this doesn't seem likely either.

Bradgriff · 09-01-2007, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W.E.B. Du Bois

Well if they ever "got jumpy" and lit up Los Angeles, Seattle, Portland and San Diego, the US' response would be to end Chinese history by ending China herself.

That's easy for you to say you live on the east coast......Chinese history would certainly meet it's end but so would I!

I would rather die of natural causes, like earthquakes.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · 09-01-2007, 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wheeldog

I have to strongly disagree with you. China has a fairly sophisticated military with a powerful nuclear capability and long range missles. Even if their ability to directly strike the continental U.S. was limited, they could wreak havoic on us indirectly by attacking our energy lifelines. We have critical strategic interests scattered around the globe that are tempting targets.

China holds an enormously powerful weapon that could virtually collapse the U.S. with little or no physical damage to itself. All they have to do is dump their cache of U.S. treasuries, dollars and other debt instruments onto the maket, and it would bring down our economy. In case that may not sound too threatening, try to imagine returning to the days of the Great Depression - only far worse.

Wrong on both counts. Wheeldog, you don't know anything about the Chinese military.

As for the economy, they can dump whatever they want for us, they hold only 10% of our foreign currency reserves, a small portion. Chinese exports total $288 billion and we only export $55 billion to them. Given that the Chinese economy is only $2.7 trillion, that's about 10% of their economy. We also have an enormous amount of capital invested in China. This too would be withdrawn.

Given that the US and the world support the status quo, it's likely that the world would also be supporting the US in a fight against China, so that would cause further economic problems for China. Lastly, any war is going to be fought on the Chinese doorstep making the region volatile and discouraging any investment in China and encouraging a selling off of Chinese investments.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · 09-01-2007, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bradgriff

That's easy for you to say you live on the east coast......Chinese history would certainly meet it's end but so would I!

I would rather die of natural causes, like earthquakes.

So if China invades Taiwan, let em' have it?

Bradgriff · 09-01-2007, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W.E.B. Du Bois

So if China invades Taiwan, let em' have it?

Taiwan is China's version of Cuba...worth about as much to the Chinese as Cuba is to us.

I don't believe the Chinese will risk thier prosperous streak by invading a small Island that won't get them much besides revenge against an enemy where very few of the people who started the grudge are still alive. The Chinese are not stupid, they are even more calculating and patient than we are IMO.

Anyway.....they probably can't sneak a nuclear sub past our Navy's west coast perimeter...right?

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · 09-01-2007, 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bradgriff

Taiwan is China's version of Cuba...worth about as much to the Chinese as Cuba is to us.

I don't believe the Chinese will risk thier prosperous streak by invading a small Island that won't get them much besides revenge against an enemy where very few of the people who started the grudge are still alive. The Chinese are not stupid, they are even more calculating and patient than we are IMO.

Anyway.....they probably can't sneak a nuclear sub past our Navy's west coast perimeter...right?

Yeah, I agree. I don't think China will risk an invasion of Taiwan just out of the blue. They will only attack Taiwan in response to a formal declaration of independence. However, the DPP Pro-Independence coalition in Taiwan is currently getting hosed. They are doing about as well as the Republicans are doing here, so it doesn't look like independence anytime soon.

As for their nuclear subs, they make more noise than popcorn in a microwave oven, and their range is short, so they're not going anywhere.