China and the South China Sea. - Political Forum

Francois · 11-10-2006, 03:59 AM

Hi, as suggested I am starting this thread here, that I started on another forum, but...

Please just understand that this is strictly MY own personal vision, issued from nummerous readings on the subject, and several International Studies Groups I had the chance to attempt these last 5 years (mainly US, Canada, Europa, and Japan/Korea).

South China Sea.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

For a number of years now, China has been working hard and somewhat managed to pull the US from the South East Asia, where it has its biggest claims, namely the whole South China Sea (SCS).

The idea is a long term work of isolation of each country bordeing the sea.
For that, several directions:
Exclusively two-sided agreement signed for each other contender
Asking the countries via diplomatic and hidden ways to disclose the US/EU for any defence agreements
Forbidding indirectly the Western military support for security issues (i.e. fighting piracy)

The isolation is working well. That plus the two-sided agreements, the contenders dealed one-by-one will have no choice but wait for their turn.

This way, China can go and secure the whole SCS pretty easily, up to Malacca.
I believe the isolation of Taiwan and Japan are part of the game too.
By closing the straight, Taiwan will starve, and Japan has no choice but go all the way around.

One sigle aircraft carrier may be more then useful to maintain air superiority agaisnt small countries (what can Malaysia do against 20/30 Su-33 with her handful of SH that barely fly?).

I believe that China has noway today but to go to war.
And a vision of China ranging from Aseh to Kyushu is not a only dream.

Problem is: How to deal with:
1- Singapore (but the chinese diaspora represents 80% of the population)
2- Skorea (fielding a new and puwerful projection tool)
3- Japan (presently can't be threaten by china)

The answer for the two seconds is: asphixy. Prevent the air from coming in.
They will have to attack, and will be the bads.

winter6126 · 11-10-2006, 06:08 AM

China Mainland/Taiwan,Vietnam,Brunei,Philippine are declare they own South China sea
of course there will break out a big war in South China sea one day,but inot right now,because the US and Japan's military threat is the most important to Chinese.

Luke · 11-10-2006, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Francois

Hi, as suggested I am starting this thread here, that I started on another forum, but...

For a number of years now, China has been working hard and somewhat managed to pull the US from the South East Asia, where it has its biggest claims, namely the whole South China Sea (SCS).

The idea is a long term work of isolation of each country bordeing the sea.
For that, several directions:
Exclusively two-sided agreement signed for each other contender
Asking the countries via diplomatic and hidden ways to disclose the US/EU for any defence agreements
Forbidding indirectly the Western military support for security issues (i.e. fighting piracy)

The isolation is working well. That plus the two-sided agreements, the contenders dealed one-by-one will have no choice but wait for their turn.

This way, China can go and secure the whole SCS pretty easily, up to Malacca.
I believe the isolation of Taiwan and Japan are part of the game too.
By closing the straight, Taiwan will starve, and Japan has no choice but go all the way around.

One sigle aircraft carrier may be more then useful to maintain air superiority agaisnt small countries (what can Malaysia do against 20/30 Su-33 with her handful of SH that barely fly?).

I believe that China has noway today but to go to war.
And a vision of China ranging from Aseh to Kyushu is not a only dream.

Problem is: How to deal with:
1- Singapore (but the chinese diaspora represents 80% of the population)
2- Skorea (fielding a new and puwerful projection tool)
3- Japan (presently can't be threaten by china)

The answer for the two seconds is: asphixy. Prevent the air from coming in.
They will have to attack, and will be the bads.

It seems that South China Sea has been very quiet recently. Vietnam has most of the islands in the west side of the South China Sea; Philipine has most of the islands in the east side of the South China Sea. It seems that China is not doing anything here.

America has military bases in Singapore, so you cannot say western influence is pulled out of the region. China also has no ability to asphyxiate Japan, since China does not dominate this region. Malaysia and Indonesia are all big countries, and pretty far from China, too. Philipine has large American influence, so it is impossible for China to control these countries.

Singapore is quite pro-Beijing. Lee Kuang Yao is the only foreign leader invited to speak in the Central Party College of Politics in Beijing. S. Korea has N. Korea in the north, so they have more things to worry. Japan also has huge influence in Southeastern Asia, and they should not be worrying that they will be asphyxiated.

Why do u say that China will go to war for South China Sea??

Francois · 11-12-2006, 08:34 PM

Well, I am not intended to fight anyone, and sure hope I am wrong.

Today, americans are trying to go back in Kam Rahn Bay.
But China is making a big effort for that to never happen, mainly via Russia.

Japan can't intervene if it is not directly threaten.

Here is a map to get the real picture:

Will be back.

Tumbleweed · 11-12-2006, 09:00 PM

Francois

Ok. I'm confused.

Is Kam Rahn Bay also known as Cam Rahn Bay ?

"But China is making a big effort for that to never happen, mainly via Russia."
Are you referring to Russias 25 year lease of Cam or Kam Rahn Bay ?

winter6126 · 11-13-2006, 09:05 AM

Quote:

Today, americans are trying to go back in Kam Rahn Bay.

where's "Kam Rahn Bay"?（金兰湾)
Do you mean that well-known Vietnam bay?after 1979,Russian hired that bay.2002,Vietnam Navy control this bay again.
if i am right,then american build another base to threaten China,because Vietnamese love American, and American want to hire this Vietnam bay,both Vietnam Defense minister and US Defense minister are interest in this plan

Luke · 11-13-2006, 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Francois

Well, I am not intended to fight anyone, and sure hope I am wrong.

Today, americans are trying to go back in Kam Rahn Bay.
But China is making a big effort for that to never happen, mainly via Russia.

Japan can't intervene if it is not directly threaten.

Here is a map to get the real picture:

Will be back.

From the picture, obviously China only controls a few islands. Many of them are controlled by Vietnam.

Kam Rahn Bay used to be an important Russian military base in southeastern Asia. Now, Russia is too poor to rent that bay, so Americans want to rent that bay. I think China might also be interested. America is very ambitious in the eastern Asia.

winter6126 · 11-14-2006, 06:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luke

From the picture, obviously China only controls a few islands. Many of them are controlled by Vietnam.

Kam Rahn Bay used to be an important Russian military base in southeastern Asia. Now, Russia is too poor to rent that bay, so Americans want to rent that bay. I think China might also be interested. America is very ambitious in the eastern Asia.

I don't think Vietnamese will rent the bay to American,although they love american.since 1986,they abandon the foreign policy (unite big country such as Russia against China).and they have different values with American too.
but i think they will cooperate with American and get advance weapon from them,you know,in Vietnamese's heart(I think include Ho ChiMin),they always afraid China.