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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 02-08-2007, 08:07 PM
Luke Luke is offline
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Originally Posted by francois60 View Post
Heh. The worst slavemasters are usually former slaves.

Anyway, Africans complain too much. They want wealth, but without the knowhow to exploit their own resources, they need outside help. THen they complain about that outside help.
Africans are deceived by western countries and they are still not waking up. All those western values and western principles are only good if you are as rich as western countries. Africans have to discover their own ways to develop their societies, not just to follow western ways.
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Old 02-08-2007, 08:22 PM
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Originally Posted by W.E.B. Du Bois View Post
I would say that I agree with the analysis of the article.

I do not agree with george's comment that China's exchanges with Africa will be a boon for Africa. It will mostly help China. China will get Africa's natural resources and access to Africa's markets. She will provide loans, which only help corrupt governments and will probably be squandered for Presidential palaces. African countries have little chance of penetrating the Chinese market, while China penetrates theirs.

I think the exchange probably hurts Africa a bit more than it helps.
I don't agree. China helps African countries with their infrastructure. We build railways, dams, highways, airports, schools and hospitals. Sudan economy growth reaches 9.5% in 2006. Angola grows by 14%. We have just offered lots of money to Sudan to improve Darfur situations.
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 02-08-2007, 08:47 PM
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Of course it would have helped Darfur more if you'd stopped giving them money until they stopped murdering blacks, like we did.
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 02-09-2007, 12:14 AM
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Originally Posted by francois60 View Post
Sure there is. Prices fluctuate, you have to build the infrastrucure, and there are risks like oil fires, accidents, etc. Those things can cost money. Now granted, resource exploitation isn't risky like a tech or pharma company is risky, but energy companies can and do screw up and fail. Bush was on the board of one such company, Harken Energy.

For the entity that owns the oil but can't exploit it, there is no risk. They get royalties no matter what.
The price of oil does fluctuate......between profitable and EXTREMELY profitable. No risk.

Can you show me anyone who ever lost money pumping oil from a known deposit of oil?

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There is no economic benefit in the longterm to shielding uncompetitive businesses from competition. Not much in the short term either. All you really do is preserve jobs. At the cost of future innovation and current consumer prices.
Shielding uncompetitive businesses, where one has no comparative advantage, shields the entire economy from collapsing. Once the domestic industries are wiped out by competition, not only are the jobs gone, and the economy destroyed, but the future is wrecked as well. How can there be any progress after all those businesses are gone?

I grant you that protectionism keeps prices up, but if you don't have a job (under free trade between China and Africa) to pay for goods, I guess it doesn't matter too much what the prices is. WRT innovation, with a countries businesses wiped out (under free trade) how would they innovate?


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Originally Posted by francois60 View Post
Yes, in the short term, Chinese companies will wipe out most African competition. But good African companies will prosper. And many Chinese-owned companies will want to build infrastructure in Africa, which will provide jobs and educate the next generation of African businessmen.
Some good African companies may prosper, but many will also go under as well. The upside you present is infrastructure. Chinan is only building as much infraastructure as it will take to get the resources out of the bowels of the earth and into a ship bound for China. This will be insufficient to provide the jobs that are destroyed from free trade. Whatever education is gained can't replace the education provided by the indigenous jobs that will be lost to free trade.

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Without this trade, Africa is doomed to be where it is now for a very, very, long time.
Africa has a better shot at modernization without free trade with China than with it. China and Africa are not countries with different comparative advantage, so their economies don't complement each other as a developed and underdeveloped country do. Both countries are labor abundant, but China has superior infrastructure and organization so they are a competitor (not a partner) with Africa in anything but natural resources.

Africa has problems, but they are not solved by trading with China. Africa needs to get its government together, which will allow them to provide their own infrastructure. They can engage in some trade, but they should not allow their economies to be flooded with Chinese goods that they have no chance of competing with.

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Originally Posted by francois60 View Post
They can compete in areas where they have comparative advantage. Such as agriculture and livestock. IF China opens their markets to African goods.
I'm listening. Haven't heard anything about Africa being strong in food production, but I'm listening if you have something to say about that.

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Originally Posted by francois60 View Post
Therein lies the problem. China is taking advantage of the world in the same way Japan did. But in the end, you pay the piper. Restrictive import policies will only harm China in the long run, because Chinese businesses will grow fat and complacent in the absence of real competition. China is an emerging economy so everyone is hungry now, but eventually they'll end up like Japan in the absence of real competition.
I don't agree. China is large enough that they will be more like the US than Japan. China is large enough that they have a sizeable internal market that they can concern themselves with supplying. Japan always had to worry about getting into other markets, which lead them to make bad loans to exporters and subsequently crashed their economy, since many loans turned out to be no good.

Not an expert on Japanese economics, but that's how I understood it.

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China has Most Favored Nation trading status. It's not free trade like we have with Mexico and Canada, but it is better than the terms we give the countries you mentioned. Although one or two of them might have MFN status and I just don't know it.
MFN status is required for all countries that the US trades with under the WTO, I believed. I'm not sure, but I believe that any country the US trades with under the WTO are all under MFN status.
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old 02-09-2007, 12:20 AM
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BTW, another risk to exploiting natural resources that I can't believe I forgot to mention is being wrong about what's actually there. My grandfather dabbled in oil for awhile. He got a contract on federal property where his people said there was X amount of oil, and he paid on that basis. Turns out there wasn't a whole lot oil and his little venture was a failure.
That could hurt a small investor, but with nowadays technology, I don't think they make those kinds of errors.
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 02-09-2007, 12:23 AM
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I don't agree. China helps African countries with their infrastructure. We build railways, dams, highways, airports, schools and hospitals. Sudan economy growth reaches 9.5% in 2006. Angola grows by 14%. We have just offered lots of money to Sudan to improve Darfur situations.
How has Chinese money improved Darfur's situation? You mean how China says "have a palace, President of Darfur, just call off the janjaweed on those blacks?" That's good, I guess. However, if China does this kind of thing for every despot in Africa, then guess what? Now all those African despots have an independent source of income and they can use that to hire troops to reinforce their corrupt regimes.
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 02-09-2007, 02:52 AM
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EHy. Sorry I did not take part in this debate, I was away a bit.


1. Africa is not benefiting from Chinese interference and entry. I can cite many examples for this. Last year, the SA government finally decided to curb the dumbing of very cheap Chinese clothes, since our own manufacturing industry almost went bankrupt with in a year - we can not compete in pirces since labour so so damned cheap in China.
2. China helps evil and bad governments stay in place. How is this good.
3. Someone said we complain to much, and something about us not being able to get our own recources, so needing help? Rubish! SA sends engineers toi Eurpe, Russia, Aus and the US to advise on getting recources fromeep in the earth. WE are alos getting loads of money from selling our technoogy for making oetroleum from coal. We can look after this ourselves, thank you very much.
4. WEB, Africa's strongest industry is argicultrue, which is why Africa fights for free trade, with subsidies in place, we can't compte against US and EU farmers. SA for instance is one of very few countries in the world who is a netexporter of foodstuffs


Sorry, have to run again, will try to say more clearly what I think later
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 02-09-2007, 03:06 AM
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I knew I was right.

Thanks for the info on South African agriculture. Do you think many African countries have THE POTENTIAL to be net exporters of food (crops and meat)?
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 02-09-2007, 06:13 AM
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Just a piece about a looming downside of Chian in Africa.

PRETORIA, South Africa - Chinese President
Hu Jintao is in Africa bearing the usual gifts of money for soccer stadiums and interest-free loans. But he also has brought a new recognition of the downside of China's aggressive quest for the continent's resources.

These include tensions over mounting trade imbalances, the practices of some Chinese investors and the risks of doing business with rogue states.

Unmentioned, as Beijing adds luster to Africa's renewed status as a strategic ally, is the possibility of a dispute with the United States as the two vie for resources and influence on the continent. Another source of possible conflict is China's arms sales to countries accused of human rights violations.

China acknowledges downside in Africa - Yahoo! News
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 02-09-2007, 04:32 PM
Luke Luke is offline
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Of course it would have helped Darfur more if you'd stopped giving them money until they stopped murdering blacks, like we did.
What you did is purely punitive and negative. What we are doing is positive and constructive. You are just too stingy and angry to give the money, knowing that you cannot control Sudan for oil.
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