Quote:
Originally Posted by NATe
I dunno which world your living in but that is completely untrue. Have you seen Israel lately? Or Pakistan? The only reason our media doesnt report on the constant violence in those countries is because its been going on for centuries and it wouldn't make for good news.
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These are areas of serious concerns, but they currently are not major wars. That is not to say that they will not esculate into full-scale conflicts. Also, these situations are not constraining the pumping and shipping of oil. Overall, the great majority of oil exporting nations can pump and transport as much crude as they wish - or as much as their reserves are able to supply. The fact that we are concerned about the rebels in Nigeria reducing the flow of oil from that country is indicative of the fact that the world supply of oil is extremely tight - and getting tighter. So-called "spare capacity" (the amount of oil that can be added to the current rate of flow) has been considerable in the past. Saudi Arabia and other nations could simply open the taps a bit more whenever they chose to keep price increases from setting off recessions in importing countries. Indications are that spare capacity is now almost zero.
It would only take one or two successful attacks on a major oil port or production facility in the Middle East or a direct hit of a major hurricane on oil production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico to set off an explosive price increases. We are literally skating on thin ice when it comes to oil.