Go to realclearpolitics.com and check out the latest polls. No link because there is no one link that will take you to all of them.

Here are the latest numbers:

Iowa, McCain surges to 20% and second place behind HUckabee. Romney is down to third.

New Hampshire: McCain is essentiallytied with Romney.

South Carolina: McCain is up to second place and 16%.

Getting hot at just the right time.

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chicken butt

I won't ever say its meaningless, he could pull it off, but I wouldn't bank on it yet.

The race is super fluid and there's a new leader every couple of weeks. Well, the primaries start in a couple of weeks, so there very well could be a new leader again.

Pretty soon now McCain is going to start getting hammered on all the things Republicans hate him for but seem to be forgetting right now. And when that happens it very well may knock him off his new perch and someone else will take it up.

I think its Thompson's turn, but it really could be anybody.

I don't think so. The base already knows why they don't like McCain. There's no secret record to uncover like there was with the others.

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chicken butt

Every time I read about who is in front of the primary race, I see all the things I dislike about that person's platform. Even though I don't like McCain that much he is always the guy my political ideology test comes up with as the “candidate that most matches” my answers. The only thing we disagree on seems to be gay marriage, according to these "tests." I know of many more. Overall, it is going to be a pick between the lesser of two evils again.

If there were a candidate that matched all my ideals and said everything I wanted to hear, I would classify that person as a raving lunatic. Most likely unfit for office.

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I am more concerned with the intellectual environment

'Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not.'

~ Thomas Jefferson

64,999,987 firearms owners killed no one yesterday.

I would call the poll a fluke. I was watching Hardball the other night and they were showing a poll with McCain in the single digits and the race in Iowa being just between Huck and Romney. Huck at about 35%, and Romney at about 27%.

I saw this one wild poll with Hillary Clinton vs Obama, the point being that you can get some wacked out poll numbers. This one might be it:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008
At this stage in the game, people's fortunes could go either way, but I feel that the race is between Huckabee and Romney and for the moment, Romney's got the juice.

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Formerly W.E.B. Du Bois (you can still call me "WEB")

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Obviously we need to see another poll, but I recall that Huckabee had an exploding poll number a month or so ago that ended up being supported by further polls.

All I hope for is a strong third in Iowa for McCain, followed by a win in New Hampshire and at least second in South Carolina.

But if McCain actually dropped Romney to third in Iowa, I think that would do to Romney what Dean's third place finish in Iowa did to him in 2004.

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chicken butt

I will bet you that McCain finishes no higher than 3rd in Iowa.

I bet you that Iowa looks like this on 1/3:

Huckabee 32%
Romney 28%
McCain 12%

The Iowans were not favorable to McCain last time, and I don't think they like him this time. Religion seems to be the key factor in Iowa, and McCain only gave those folks a tough time with McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform and calling Pat Robertson an idiot.

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Formerly W.E.B. Du Bois (you can still call me "WEB")

Current Diplomacy thread
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Protest Animal Cruelty

I’ll tell you. I think that McCain’s rise is going to be a blip. I think people are starting to realize that Huckabee isn’t the guy they thought he was and moved over to McCain because they know Giuliani isn’t one of them and Romney has been so negative on Huckabee lately that he probably doesn’t look that appealing to someone just leaving the Huckabee camp. Then there’s McCain. He’s been down for so long nobody has said anything negative about him since the summer. People are starting to forget why they didn’t like him in the first place and it won’t be long now before Romney (and maybe others) start reminding people.

So, maybe McCain’s got the sand to finish this out, but I doubt it. And I hope not.

How much time is left though. The holidays are like, next week, and then the Iowa and NH come right after each other. Does a negative campaign really have time to get going?

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chicken butt

I guess we'll find out. One of two things I'm guessing will happen.


Because of the short time frame it doesn't have time to work well. People just don't see the ads enough times for them to really have an effect.

Or

Because of the short time from the negative campaign works fantasically well because the right after the charges land the caucus takes place and McCain never has a chance to effectively counter them.

I'm betting on the latter, but neither would surprise me.