Doublebase

When is the next debate? Will it be all the Republicans vs the Democrats? What exactly happens at the Iowa caucus? I need a politics for dummies book.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary

No one else bit at this. I'll give it a shot.

There will be no new debates until the next primary, which will take place in Iowa on January the 3rd. The basic idea is this, primaries on:

Iowa 1/3
New Hampshire 1/8
Michigan 1/15
Nevada 1/19
South Carolina 1/26 for Dems 1/19 for Reps
Florida 1/29

The Republicans have a slightly different dynamic for the primaries than the Dems because what happened was that Michigan and Florida moved up their primary dates and the parties told them not to. As a result of their defiance, the Democrats completely disqualified any results that come out of either state. The Republicans imposed a -50% penalty on the number of delegates those two states carry.

After the primary in Florida, the next big thing is Super Tuesday, which occurs on February 5th. That's when a shitload of states go to the polls to pick a candidate. It is possible that it all ends on February 5th if one side wins heavy enough.

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The current situation is that Huckabee will probably take Iowa, Romney or McCain might get New Hampshire, maybe Romney gets Nevada, and Huckabee probably takes South Carolina.

There's going to be a considerable and decisive fight (IMO) among the reps for Michigan between Romney and Giuliani. I think Giuliani is finished if he does not carry Michigan.

As for the Dems, I think Obama will win in Iowa, and pundits say that if he does, he will win New Hampshire. After that Clinton wins Nevada, then things go onto South Carolina where Clinton is tied with Obama currently. If Obama nails Iowa and NH, he will probably get South Carolina.

After that, it's on to Super Tuesay for the Dems (Feb 5th). IMO, I think Hillary will still beat Obama, as her national lead over him has consistently been on the order of 2:1 and this has not really changed.


WEB

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Doublebase

Ok so they have a debate between both parties on January 3 in Iowa and all the above listed dates? If the debate is 1/3 then when does Iowa vote? 1/4?

Albinonewt

The Republicans were talking about holding another debate prior to the primary because of the disaster that was the last debate and the horror that was the last moderator.

To my knowledge that hasn't moved past the "in theory" stage.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary

The conventional wisdom is that there will be no new debates prior to 1/3 and no debate on 1/3. People in Iowa head to the polls on 1/3.

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Doublebase

So is there a calender for the upcoming debates?

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary

If there is, I know nothing of them. Why are you so concerned about the debates? I would suggest watching the Des Moines Register Democratic debate and the second to last Republican debate (the one before the Des Moines debate). That's the one where Huckabee owned.

Barack owned in the last Democratic debate.

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Bradgriff

Well put together Du Bois! Even someone like me can understand...I'm curious.....who's it gonna be as far as you see?

Here is my prediction based purely on a wild ass guess

Huckabee, or
Romney 46%

Clinton 49%

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Sebelius for VP, not Hillary

I would say that nothing in this election is predictable, and any leap you take is going to be into the fog.

I think Hillary will beat Obama. She's going to nail his ass in the big delegate states (New York, California, etc).

As for the GOP race, I just heard, as in the last half hour that a considerable amount of the flap about Giuliani's cheating on the accounting for security for his girlfriend was bullshit. So that could change things a lot. Or the damage could be done and it could be too late. It's simply too close to call for the Reps. ALL of the Reps are damaged goods to some extent.

Giuliani has his past and his liberal issues
Romney is a flip-flopper and a Mormon
Huckabee's got his tax raising past and his support of the scholarship for illegals, he's also getting a lot of press about being TOO religious

I could not make any kind of prediction in the GOP race.

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