Giuliani no longer the sole frontrunner - Political Forum

Caltex · 12-04-2007, 02:36 PM

Tuesday, December 04, 2007: "With less than a month to go before the Iowa caucuses, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that Rudy Giuliani has fallen back in the pack in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani’s support has fallen to 18% and four other candidates are within six percentage points of the lead. Mike Huckabee is enjoying an amazing surge and now shares the top spot with Giuliani at 18%. Close behind are John McCain at 14%, Fred Thompson at 13%, and Mitt Romney at 12%. Ron Paul attracts 7% of Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide and no other Republican candidate reaches 2%"

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election.

The race is any mans game now, Nearly every candidate is within the margin of error of each other.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · 12-04-2007, 03:09 PM

Thompson is out, he just sucks. No public speaking ability, no reputation, poor grasp on the issues.

Romney is going to lose. Huckabee has destroyed his rolling victory in Iowa-NH-South Carolina strategy.

McCain will never win due to the fact that he looks old as hell everytime he talks and the whole thing with immigration and campaign finance reform (which pissed off the religious right).

Ron Paul is out of the question since he's out of step with his party.

I'd say it's between Huckabee and Rudy. Just my 2 cents.

Caltex · 12-04-2007, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W.E.B. Du Bois

Thompson is out, he just sucks. No public speaking ability, no reputation, poor grasp on the issues.

McCain will never win due to the fact that he looks old as hell everytime he talks and the whole thing with immigration and campaign finance reform (which pissed off the religious right).

Yeah, I'm amazed Thompson still has the level of support that he has. I'm not sure what anyone sees in him.

I'm not well read on the campaign finance reform being opposed by the religious right. What reason do they have to be against it, they can still donate as much as anyone else.

micfranklin · 12-04-2007, 03:25 PM

Well as long as Giuliani's not dominating at the moment I'm happy.

Albinonewt · 12-04-2007, 03:30 PM

Thompson has the most detailed policy plans of any candidate in either race. He has been unable to seal the deal with the primary voters, but his stumbling block is one of charisma and communication, not a weak grasp on the issues.

All of the major Republican candidates still have a shot at the nomination. The hardest sell is probably Huckabee just because he lacks the infrastructure and funding to compete. But, he hasn't needed those things up until now so he may very well be able to overcome that obstacle.

Troianii · 12-04-2007, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W.E.B. Du Bois

Thompson is out, he just sucks. No public speaking ability, no reputation, poor grasp on the issues.

Romney is going to lose. Huckabee has destroyed his rolling victory in Iowa-NH-South Carolina strategy.

McCain will never win due to the fact that he looks old as hell everytime he talks and the whole thing with immigration and campaign finance reform (which pissed off the religious right).

Ron Paul is out of the question since he's out of step with his party.

I'd say it's between Huckabee and Rudy. Just my 2 cents.

That's a very good analysis. If Romney can't win in Iowa, NH or SC then he hasn't got a prayer. Whoever wins these states has the best chance of winning, and Romney isn't too far behind, but he is losing ground.

I've found in the below links that Romney and Huckabee are tied in Iowa, and assuming that Huckabee's popularity is more than a surge and won't recede, it will be close. I've also found that Romney's lead in New Hampshire is... Well, New Hampshire is Romney country right now, as Romney hold at least 15% over the closest contender. In South Carolina it looks like Romney still holds the lead, but not a signifigant lead.

Time will tell, but don't count Romney out just yet. If he can win two of these three states then he's still in the game.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Iowa Republican Caucus

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - New Hampshire Republican Primary

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - South Carolina Republican Primary

apawllo · 12-04-2007, 06:28 PM

Early state primary polls mean a whole lot more than national polls. Giuliani gets a ton of free press - more than any other candidate. I think after the primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire are over that will change A LOT.

Troianii · 12-04-2007, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by apawllo

Early state primary polls mean a whole lot more than national polls. Giuliani gets a ton of free press - more than any other candidate. I think after the primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire are over that will change A LOT.

I think that it's important to note that no Republican candidate has ever won the nomination without winning Iowa or New Hampshire. Every Republican winner has won one of those two states, and it isn't just chance. For some reason people are concerned with "voting for the winner", and that's why the guy who takes these early states takes the nation.

Caltex · 12-04-2007, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Troianii

I think that it's important to note that no Republican candidate has ever won the nomination without winning Iowa or New Hampshire. Every Republican winner has won one of those two states, and it isn't just chance. For some reason people are concerned with "voting for the winner", and that's why the guy who takes these early states takes the nation.

The slingshot effect is very real. If Giuliani loses the first 3 states he can kiss the nomination good bye. This election is going to be especially interesting though, because the first 3 states could go to 3 different candidates.

Troianii · 12-04-2007, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Caltex

The slingshot effect is very real. If Giuliani loses the first 3 states he can kiss the nomination good bye. This election is going to be especially interesting though, because the first 3 states could go to 3 different candidates.

They could. Romney seems to have such a strong lead in New Hampshire that he couldn't lose it, and is either tied or has a small lead in the others. I'm a strong Romney supporter, and I think that he can pull off two of the three states. If he does, there would be little that could make my day go wrong.