Alright, I edited Oregon in. I thought the Dems would be further out in front too, but there are a few surprising battleground states. Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are all pretty solid Dem states and listed as battleground states this year.

If Giuliani won NY, nothing else matters and this conversation is basically worthless. However, the state polls showed that Clinton was beating him pretty badly a couple months ago.

So the BGS are,

AK, 6
CO, 9
FL, 27
IO, 7
MI, 17
MN, 10
MO, 11
NH, 4
NM, 5
NV, 5
OH, 20
PA, 21
VA, 13
WI, 10

In the past few elections these states of split like this

Rep, _________________________________ Dem,

AK _________________________________ MI
FL _________________________________ MN
VA _________________________________ NH
IO _________________________________ PA
MO _________________________________ WI
OH
CO
NV
NM

Giving a total of only 62 more points to the Dems and 103 points to the Reps. This is according to the last few elections.

We need to go over the numbers, because they aren't adding up.

Okay, I found the missing numbers. West Virginia isn't lised as a Dem, Rep, or a BGS. What do you think it is? It is 5 points, and I think it is probably Dem.

I think they are listed as BGS because they have some views that are conservative, and that they didn't win by huge margines.

Oregon, is Socially Liberal, but Economically Conservative (we just voted down a child's health care measure, I wasn't happy with that), so it has always been considered BG because their is some aspect that republicans can play to, but this election is considered to far gone for the Reps to have any chance.

There are no good state polls of who is leaning where because we don't know who the candidates are going to be yet. Wait for the primaries and then we will start seeing which state is where. The polls are all about the party nominations yet.

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That's true to a degree. There are some states that will undoubtedly go in certain directions though. I suppose the purpose here is to see which way states will go if different people win the primaries....

It's listed as one of the battleground states, but I don't see how - it went Bush both times. The Appalachian folks are pretty conservative.

You have a good point Colour - I just thought a little early speculation might be fun. I'd like to run this thread again when the primaries are over. I'm so sick of Americans ignoring the importance of the EC.

Sorry, I meant Rep. A little Brain Fart there.

Exactly. It very much depends on the nominee. There is a poll on Real Clear Politics today that shows the Republicans winning Connecticut if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican nominee, but if he isn't, the Dems win it pretty handily.

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