In terms of strict modeling based on past performance, that prediction is accurate.

However, Iowa especially defies modeling. Iowa is very unpredictable and the winner could get a big boost on the Democratic side.

On the Republican side, it's the big states that matter. Iowa and NH often produce surprises on the GOP side, but for some reason GOP voters in other states don't give a shit. I'm not sure why early wins in IA and NH influence Democrats in other states but not GOPers in other states.

Perhaps Democrats are more lemming-like?

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chicken butt

I don't know. Republicans tend to become sheep after the guy is elected. During the nominating process Republicans kick the tires and look under the hood a lot more than Democrats. The Democrats just figure "Well, Iowa says candidate X is good, so I guess he's the guy!"

Republicans are like, "Where the hell is Iowa and why should I care?"

Then when a Democrat is elected, Democrats spend the next four years attacking their own President. If a Republican is elected, Republicans spend the next four years explaining that he sits at the right hand of God and is not to be questioned.

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chicken butt

Hillary 50%
Guiliani 47%
November 11, 2008

mark my words

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“I think every good Christian ought to kick Falwell right in the ass.”-Barry Goldwater

It’s still to early to tell with such accuracy.
But this is a very good guess IMO.

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I think the red states will be a little surprised this year. While many will vote 65-35 for the Republican, they will find that the states that will define this election will vote about 52-55 to 48-45 for any Democratic candidate. The result will be about a 3-5 point difference in the popular vote, but a rather sizeable difference in the electoral college. The Electoral College math will finally turn against them this year.

Sabato's Crystal Ball - A MAP IN FLUX?

An interesting map.

I'd rather jump off a building than vote for them. If those are my chooses, I'm using a write in. I'm sick of the same damn people getting into office. When will Americans realize that this is not in their best interest?

GOPers realize that Iowa and NH are two weird little states that don't make much of a difference.

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A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
— Robert Heinlein, Time Enough for Love

Dems are both lemmings and sheeple. What would you use for Republicans?

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A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
— Robert Heinlein, Time Enough for Love