My election prediction - Political Forum

Peter Wiggin · 08-13-2007, 10:55 AM

The nomination candidates will be...
Republican: Mitt Romney (name familiarity is a big part and the news does a good job of spreading his.)

Democrats: Barack Obama (Has some good points and is popular with a lot of people.)
OR
Hilary Clinton (Democrats like her...but she is less likely to get it because....by tradition a guy has always had the presidency.)

BANDERA · 08-13-2007, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter Wiggin

The nomination candidates will be...
Republican: Mitt Romney (name familiarity is a big part and the news does a good job of spreading his.)

Democrats: Barack Obama (Has some good points and is popular with a lot of people.)
OR
Hilary Clinton (Democrats like her...but she is less likely to get it because....by tradition a guy has always had the presidency.)

When you have an "OR" that is not a prediction that is a weasling!!

CHUQ · 08-14-2007, 05:07 AM

My prediction is a Clinton/Obama ticket for the Dems. They would both bring a substantial voting bloc to the table.

Repubs will probably be Mitt, he seems to be playing well with the conservs. Like they have no choices to choose from that is why Thompson is thirds in polls and he is still a non-candidate candidate. Once he officially enters I believbe his so called support will be on the wane.

francois60 · 08-14-2007, 11:49 AM

If the primaries were held today and the election tomorrow, I'd pick Clinton as the Democratic nominee and Giuliani as the Republican nominee. Giuliani would win.

Romney leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, but that's all he leads at this point. Giluiani is dominating the big state primaries. Romney will get a boost from those early wins, but not enough to overcome Giuliani in California, New York, and Florida. Romney also isn't winning the South, period, no matter how much money he spends. The South is either going to settle for Giuliani, or rally around McCain or Huckabee.

Obama at this point can't beat Clinton because like Romney, he isn't doing so well in the big state primaries that will be held on Jan. 29 and Feb. 5.

In this election, it's not Iowa and New Hampshire that will be deciding the nominees, but Florida, New York, and California.

Peter Wiggin · 08-14-2007, 04:48 PM

You also forgot about many of the western states Romney has a lot of support there. as for Florida and New York they flip flop too much to tell which way they'll swing.

francois60 · 08-14-2007, 04:51 PM

Florida and New York have been consistently Giuliani states for the last six months.

As for the West, yes, Romney has good support there, but those aren't early primaries and they are too small to be important late unless Romney is close towards the end of the process.

Romney is certainly a first tier guy, and he certainly can win, but if Iowa kicked off today, he wouldn't be there yet. Romney must do better in South Carolina. Wins in Iowa and New Hampshire are a good way to get a quick lead, but won't shake support for Giuliani in the big states. Netting South Carolina would show Romney's strength in three different regions and would hurt Giuliani.

Bradgriff · 08-14-2007, 05:38 PM

It's gonna be:

HILLARY - 51%
GULIANNI - 48%

Judge Dredd · 08-14-2007, 05:39 PM

I live in Florida and I've not noticed particular strength for any canidate.

We may have a rino governor, but he's hardly a Rudy. Florida will more then likely support McCain.

SamInTheSouth · 08-14-2007, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CHUQ

My prediction is a Clinton/Obama ticket for the Dems. They would both bring a substantial voting bloc to the table.

I completely disagree. Clinton will be the nominee but she will not pick Obama as the VP. He brings nothing to the table to give her any kind of advantage. He doesn't deliver Illinois' electoral votes because Hillary will win those without him. He doesn't deliver the black vote because again, Hillary will win close to 90% of that without him. And the idea that some people have that Obama will somehow energize young people to come out and vote is just as fool hearty as it has been every other year we've heard that. The 1960's aside, young people don't vote. They don't care, and they only cared in the late 60s because they were getting shipped off to Vietnam and getting slaughtered. Every election since the turnout of young adults has been piss poor and it will be piss poor in 2008.

Hillary will choose a running mate from a southern state or a western state that generally goes Republican in the hopes of picking off those electoral votes from the GOP nominee. She only needs to grab one state that Kerry lost in order to win, unless it's real small one. In my opinion, look to someone like Mark Warner to be her VP.

SamInTheSouth · 08-14-2007, 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter Wiggin

You also forgot about many of the western states Romney has a lot of support there. as for Florida and New York they flip flop too much to tell which way they'll swing.

New York will very much go to Giuliani, by a very large margin for that fact. As for Florida, he has been leading for some time, although his support has shrunk with the prospect of Fred Thompson joining the race. Gingrich entering could also hurt Rudy in Florida because Florida is basically two states: The north half is an extension of southern Georgia and the south half is all New York transplants.