francois60

I'm not asking who you are voting for, but who you think will be the next President.

The reason I ask is that this election season is unique. Every single candidate has a major problem that would seemingly make them unelectable in most years. Clinton's a woman. Obama is black. Romney is Mormon. McCain is old. Giuliani is pro-choice and trying to win the Republican nomination. Fred Thompson is as much an opportunist as Romney in terms of taking convenient stances when he wants to win political office. Edwards would seem to be the guy out of central casting, but he's inexperienced and unlike Obama, can't compensate for it with brains and charisma. All of the other white males in both parties who would seem to be well qualified for some reason can't raise any money.

But someone has to win the Presidency. Will we have a first in 2008? First woman, first African-American, first Mormon, oldest President ever? Or will one of the middle-aged white males currently in the second or third tier emerge?

Also, I'd appreciate it if you'd explain your reasoning when you make your pick.

My own prediction is still McCain. He's the only Republican in the first tier who hasn't changed his core beliefs to try to appeal to the base. If another candidate was lying skillfully enough to bamboozle the base, then yeah, McCain would be toast. But Romney and Thompson are awful liars. That will leave Mccain and Giuliani in the first tier by Jan. 2008. Given a choice between a pro-choice guy and a pro-life guy, who will the Republicans pick?

McCain will then win the general election because he's a much better debater and has much more appeal among independents. Those independents are mad at Bush, but as Bush becomes more and more of a lame duck they won't associate McCain with him as much.

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Tehnitis55

I sincerely believe that Hillary clinton will win. Out of the democratic debates she emerges as the strongest candidate, and has the experience to lead the country. She is a senator of New York and has a strong record representing family issues. She also tried to introduce the health care issue at a time that was unpopular, and although she failed, she has the experience to try this crusade again.

Along with Obama, she has raised the most money out of the democratic candidates. She will be able to get the word out about her views and get more face time as a result of the increased cash advantage she has over many of the candidates.

She also has the experience of Bill Clinton on her side. He can prove to be a good advisor, as well as a draw for many Democrats and Republicans alike looking for a glimpse back to the good old days when Bill was president.

I also believe that people will soon stop holding her decision to stay will Bill after he cheated on her against her. It simply has nothing to do with her political views, and is a childish reason to dislike someone. I view her staying with her husband as doing what was best for her family, and for her career as a public servant. I am sure we know many people who were cheated on yet stayed together for the good of the family. She might just love Bill too.

She has a great shot, and I think she will pull it off.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary

Come on, man, use your head. He's poor, his base hates him, his staff has fled to work with Thompson and he's like #3 or #4 in GOP polls.


WEB

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Sebelius for VP, not Hillary

I USED to think McCain would win, but that reflects how little I know, with regards to Presidential politics. I've only been REALLY watching politics since 2004, so I'm still relatively new at this game of political horse racing.

Given that I've already discounted my own opinion, I'll just take a shot anyway using logic, facts and poll #'s.

Logically, I will say that the GOP moderate vote will be split between Giuliani and Romney, causing them both to lose and Thompson to win.

Hillary will beat Obama and Edwards. Many centrists and center-left Democrats will not vote for Hillary. She may even bring down the Democratic Congressional candidates in 08'. However, since the Reps are defending more seats than the Dems in the Senate this time around, that should make that effect less bad. Also, the Iraq War and the general disatisfaction of the American people with the lack of change for the better since 2000 will also weigh against the GOP.

I think Thompson will nonetheless beat Hillary, because many people in her own party (like myself) are turned off by Hillary, and will keep their distance from her.


WEB

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francois60

Before you assume McCain to be dead, let's go back in time a little.

The date is this time in 2003. John Kerry is FIFTH in the polls. He's just fired half his staff and has little money. One of the frontrunners, he's now considered finished, an afterthought given the rise of Howard Dean.

John Edwards is EIGHTH and is raising even less money, although his campaign has been smooth and he's bringing new ideas to the table.

The top 4? Dean, Lieberman, Gephardt, and Clark.

McCain is abandoning a ridiculous campaign strategy and going back to what made him almost win the nomination in 2000. Against this pack, he can do what he wasn't able to do when George Bush and his huge name recognition was his opponent.

Considering that he has a good five months to get his shit together, I think he'll be just fine.

The problem with Thompson in my view is that he is a moderate masquerading as a conservative, like Romney, and he's just as bad at lying about it. It won't be long before Republicans see through his act. Giuliani and McCain are the only frontrunners campaigning on their actual records.

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TLo

Clinton has the best run campaign, the most money, she's been positioning herself for a run for over four years. Her experience is an asset and people look at her and see the polar opposite of Bush, that's two more plus for her. She is by far the clear front runner but a lot can happen between now an the election

Mitt Romney could very well be the Republicans choice. He's strong all over the country and he's slightly more moderate than Guliani. He's still pretty weak with the Conservatives base but the moderates like him.

Rudy is the current front runner for the republicans but his whole blame Clinton for 9/11 speech at a conservative university reeked of pandering. He's flip-flopping worse than John Kerry on many issues.

Obama and Ron Paul have a lot of young voters and a lot of support on places like facebook and myspace. A lot of times the younger vote is not well represented in polls so we may be surprised in the primaries.

Fred Thompson is a lot of bark and no bite. People talk about his presence and style but not about where he stands. His republican Cheerleader routine will have to end soon, then when he goes an mixes it up with Romney and Rudy he will come out looking like a different candidate than he does now.

McCain went from the straight talk express to Bush's lap dog. He's lost most of the respect that he earned battling Bush in the Primaries of 2000.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary

@ francois,

I'd say there's one major flaw in your argument which is that the conservatives have seen everything McCain has had to offer. Maybe it's possible for someone who has never really be in the limelight, to make it into the limelight and then make it big.

I think that conservatives have SEEN McCain and said "we don't like you." People in the past may have been unaware of Kerry and thus his early obscurity masked great potential, but everyone knows about McCain, and thus his utter poverty and the exhaustion of his campaign is a referendum on McCain as a President.


WEB

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Sebelius for VP, not Hillary

By the way, there would have to be something stunning, by way of some coup or reversal to knock Thomspon out of his status as "true conservative." I mean something huge. I don't think there is anything outside of a personal scandal that could do it. He could probably talk his way out of anything else.


WEB

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Sebelius for VP, not Hillary

Appears Giuliani is currently kicking ass, but that could be to low name-recongition for Thompson. To my knowledge he has not yet appeared at any Presidential debate.


RealClearPolitics - Polls

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donsutherland1

Francois60,

It's still early to have a good idea as to whom will be elected in 2008. I believe the strongest shots for each Party are as follows:

Democratic Party:
1. Hillary Clinton: Senate experience, husband was a President and Governor; she understands executive leadership, has contacts with leading policy figures and donors in the Democratic Party.
2. Barack Obama: An inclusive message and fresh face at a time when many feel U.S. politics is "stale." Less experience, but can make up for it with a sound VP pick. Outstanding fundraiser. Can beat Senator Clinton but will probably finish a respectable 2nd. Obviously, "Obama girl" would disagree with this sentiment.
3. John Edwards: John Kerry's running mate. Populist message. Probably will fade as Senators Clinton and Obama battle it out.

VP possibilities from the field (but an outsider could be chosen): any of the top three figures who don't win the nomination + Senator Biden or Governor Richardson

Republican Party:
1. Rudy Giuliani: In spite of his social positions that are at odds with some of the conservative base, he has demonstrated strong leadership in New York City (budget turnaround, crime reduction, etc.). Has appeal in "blue" states. Can transcend the Republican base and appeal to Independent voters.
2. Mitt Romney: Impressive private sector and public sector experience. The only candidate in the field among either party who has actually created a near universal health care plan. Appeal could be limited in the heartland of the country.
3. Fred Thompson: Strong standing, as expecations are high given his having not entered the race. Once he is exposed to competition, he will need to specify his positions and could fade.
4. John McCain: Has positioned himself as offering a foreign policy that is most similar to President Bush's. Unless some of President Bush's international projects, particularly Iraq, improve markedly, McCain's prospects are limited.

VP possibilities from the field (but an outsider could be chosen): any of the top four figures who don't win the nomination

Candidates not likely to be a factor: Dennis Kucinich-D, Mike Gravel-D, Christopher Dodd-D; Tom Tancredo-R, Ron Paul-R, Duncan Hunter-R, Tommy Thompson-R, Mike Huckabee-R, Sam Brownback-R