Obama to announce victory on May 20th? - Political Forum

emptypepsi · #1 (**permalink**) 05-09-2008, 04:16 PM

Looks like Obama is potentially penciling in May 20th as a tentative victory date, regardless of the Clinton rhetoric.

Obama plans to declare victory May 20 - David Paul Kuhn - Politico.com

Quote:

Not long after the polls close in the May 20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries, Barack Obama plans to declare victory in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

And, until at least May 31 and perhaps longer, Hillary Clinton’s campaign plans to dispute it.

It’s a train wreck waiting to happen, with one candidate claiming to be the nominee while the other vigorously denies it, all predicated on an argument over what exactly constitutes the finish line of the primary race.

The Obama campaign agrees with the Democratic National Committee, which pegs a winning majority at 2,025 pledged delegates and superdelegates—a figure that excludes the penalized Florida and Michigan delegations. The Clinton campaign, on the other hand, insists the winner will need 2,209 to cinch the nomination—a tally that includes Florida and Michigan.

Is this a smart idea by the Obama camp?

lifesaver · #2 (**permalink**) 05-09-2008, 04:48 PM

my opinion on this is-that once OBAMA reaches the 2025-he will be declared the nominee-and once he is declared mich and fla gets seated-so the hills argument then becomes moot.OBAMA so far today has picked up 7-he is just 4.5 away from overtaking her in SUPERS-he is 168 away from 2025-he may be declared nominee before may 20-who knows-this hill thing about playing the race and gender card is all over the news and internet-perhaps SUPERS will pull the plug now.

leo · #3 (**permalink**) 05-09-2008, 07:54 PM

Obama needs to let the DNC announce the winner - in my opinion, but he can and should keep on touching up on the subject as he gets closer and closer.

If he gets 2025 and the DNC says it offical then I think he should follow suit... in the mean time, I really think its time for Hillary to hang up her hat - the math just doesn't add up. Her only chance is for super delegates and Obama has a bigger popular vote - ITS OVER FOR HER.

Kazikli Bey · #4 (**permalink**) 05-09-2008, 08:15 PM

Quote:

And, until at least May 31 and perhaps longer, Hillary Clinton’s campaign plans to dispute it.

I think this just about sums it up. I wouldn't put it past Hillary to run as a third party just to screw Obama over.

emptypepsi · #5 (**permalink**) 05-09-2008, 08:44 PM

Hillary running as a third party candidate would not sit well with the party, no doubt, and that would quickly hurt any chance of her getting to run in 2012. That is a probable scenario, but that is all contingent on whether she feels she could viably run again after this.

emptypepsi · #6 (**permalink**) 05-09-2008, 08:45 PM

Personally, though I am an Obama supporter, I do not want Obama to make his victory announcement until he's reached the delegate count number. The party should make the announcement.

Taliesin · #7 (**permalink**) 05-09-2008, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by emptypepsi

Personally, though I am an Obama supporter, I do not want Obama to make his victory announcement until he's reached the delegate count number. The party should make the announcement.

I agree with you on every count. What is the one thing that Obama could do to disenfranchise Hillary voters even more? Declare victory while she denies it. I can understand that he wants to move onto the regular election and he sees this as a way of discrediting Hillary so that he may focus his full attention on McCain, but if he does decide to declare victory, it's going to prove to be a poor move. If Hillary makes the decision to continue with her campaign all the way to the convention, I could see Obama declaring a week or two prior to the convention, just so that the unpleged delagates won't have to feel guilty about supporting him.

francois60 · #8 (**permalink**) 05-10-2008, 08:02 AM

Whether the superdelegates pledge or not, nothing is decided until the actual vote occurs unless Clinton chooses to concede before the convention.

The superdelegates can even choose to abstain, thus denying either candidate a majority on the first ballot.

90% chance Obama's got it in the bag, but Clinton will have 48% of the delegates. Remember that Ted Kennedy only had 36% and tried a floor challenge in 1980.