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Old 04-01-2008, 05:00 AM   #1 (permalink)
Earl
 
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Obama and the super-delegate-catchup-race

According to this site, HC has only managed to gain the support of 22 new superdelegates since february 10th (which is the first date showed after Super Tuesday) - Obama on the other side has racked up 85.

After crunching the numbers a bit, I came up with the conclusion that at this rate, Obama will have caught in the superdelegate count within 28 days. Unfortunately though, the Pennsylvania primaries are already in 22 days...and as well all know, primaries general influence the decision of superdelegates as to which candidate to support. In other words, if Obama manages to do better than expected (meaning, preventing Hillary from winning Pennsylvania by a too big margin), I predict that Obama will catch up in the superdelegate count within a month, maybe a month in a half. If Obama gets beaten up badly in Pennsylvania, I say Hillary will go to the convention ahead in superdelegates. Thing is, polls are showing that Obama is actually loosing a bit of ground in PA lately...

What's your thoughts on it? Will Hillary stay in the race even if she's behind on pledged, super delegates AND in the popular vote? There are indications she will, but considering the superdelegate count is the only thing keeping Hillary alive, it's questionable how the party will react if Obama winds up ahead in everything and HC still won't back down.
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Last edited by AzTeK; 04-01-2008 at 05:08 AM.
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