Slate.com starts "Hillary Deathwatch" - Political Forum

W.E.B. Du Bois · #1 (**permalink**) 03-29-2008, 12:05 AM

Gauging the odds that Hillary Clinton will win the nomination. - By Christopher Beam, Chadwick Matlin, and Chris Wilson - Slate Magazine

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The Hillary Deathwatch
Gauging the odds that Clinton will win the nomination
By Christopher Beam, Chadwick Matlin, and Chris Wilson
Posted Thursday, March 27, 2008, at 6:47 PM ET

Hillary Clinton is as good as dead. [(I fucking wish) inserted by WEB] This became the consensus over the past week, when the media awoke en masse to the dual reality that 1) Clinton can't close the pledged-delegate gap and 2) Obama has her beat in the popular vote. But the Clinton campaign shows no signs of slowing—she said herself she's prepared to compete for at least three more months. So the question now is not just "How dead is she?" but "When will she realize it?"

In the tradition of Slate's Saddameter (gauging the likelihood of invading Iraq), the Clintometer (measuring the chances of a Lewinsky-related ousting), and the Gonzo-meter (charting the attorney general's demise), we bring you the Hillary Deathwatch, a daily update on Hillary Clinton's dwindling chances of winning the Democratic nomination.

To start off, we're putting her odds at a generous 12 percent. (Last week, a Clinton campaign official gave her one-in-10 odds.) At the moment, polls indicate that Obama has survived the Jeremiah Wright flap (for now). Clinton's Bosnia blunder has metastasized from a headache into a five-day circus. Bill Richardson finally climbed down from his fence onto Obama's side. And a Michigan court yesterday deemed the state's Jan. 15 primary unconstitutional and declined to order a revote, effectively smothering the last glimmer of hope for a deus ex Michigana bailout. Meanwhile, a new poll puts her favorability rating at 37 percent—its lowest since March 2001.

That said, Clinton does have a shot. A heroic margin of victory in Pennsylvania and every subsequent primary, an implosion of the Obama campaign, a sudden mass epiphany on the part of superdelegates, or some combination of the three could lead to a Clinton nomination. But to be honest, we don't expect Hillary's chances to climb much higher than 20 percent. Hence the sinking ship.

We'll adjust Clinton's odds as polls waver, surrogates resign, superdelegates bail, and, of course, voters vote. We'll also keep an eye on indicators like fundraising, political futures, media coverage (always reliable), and the windchill factor in Scranton, Pa.

Well it should be interesting to watch this little meter. 12% is good enough for me to ruin your party's chances for victory.

Caltex · #2 (**permalink**) 03-29-2008, 12:10 AM

If anything, I think this election has shown us that the primary system does not work for Democrats. They cannot peacefully come to resolution, and end up cannibalizing.

Clinton it is highly likely that Clinton is posturing for a future run. An Obama loss is necessary for this to occur. Again showing cannibalizing so common to Democratic primaries.

W.E.B. Du Bois · #3 (**permalink**) 03-29-2008, 12:16 AM

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Originally Posted by Caltex

If anything, I think this election has shown us that the primary system does not work for Democrats. They cannot peacefully come to resolution, and end up cannibalizing.

Clinton it is highly likely that Clinton is posturing for a future run. An Obama loss is necessary for this to occur. Again showing cannibalizing so common to Democratic primaries.

It's a tad misleading to call it "common" that the Democrats fight each other, and it's silly to call it cannibalizing. That sounds like an exaggeration we would hear in an elementary school story book.

It could be that Hillary is trying to sink Obama, but even if she were, I think that the growing spectacle she makes of herself and her many attacks will make Democrats (especially blacks) hate her more. I think it's very likely that liberals and other elements of the Democratic Party will remember this as well.