Democratic Party headed for a real Michigan-Florida train wreck - Political Forum

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · #1 (**permalink**) 03-06-2008, 08:57 PM

So everyone knows about the Michigan-Florida problem. I think that one of two things is going to happen:

(1) The delegates will be seated, and they will be split in half. Half for Clinton and half for Obama.

OR

(2) There will be caucuses and not primaries. Florida is broke and Michigan is even more broke. Those states are saying that the National Democrats should pay for any re-do, otherwise just seat the delegates as they are. If the DNC accepted that (which the DNC Howard Dean firmly rejected today) then it would be a complete slap in the face to the DNC. It means that they have no control and no organization over all the Democrats in the country and they can just do whatever they want.

Here's something really interesting I found:

Real Clear Politics - News - Elections 2008 - Opinion - Commentary - TIME

Quote:

Hillary: No Do-Over in Florida
Posted by TOM BEVAN | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email Author

US News' Ken Walsh asked Hillary Clinton about the possibility of "do overs" in Michigan and Florida. Clinton responded:

I would not accept a caucus. I think that would be a great disservice to the 2 million people who turned out and voted. I think that they want their votes counted. And you know a lot of people would be disenfranchised because of the timing and whatever the particular rules were. This is really going to be a serious challenge for the Democratic Party because the voters in Michigan and Florida are the ones being hurt, and certainly with respect to Florida the Democrats were dragged into doing what they did by a Republican governor and a Republican Legislature. They didn't have any choice whatsoever. And I don't think that there should be any do-over or any kind of a second run in Florida. I think Florida should be seated.

So there you go. The train wreck remains on schedule.

Clinton is arguing for two things:

* It's OK to break the rules, because doing so benefits her today
* There are no rules in the primaries. You can hold them whenever you want.
* It is OK for Clinton to go back on her own campaigns votes IN FAVOR of stripping the delegates, her comment that the Michigan primary did not matter and her agreement to abide by the rules

A collection of Hillary positions on Michigan and Florida from the Obama campaign:

Quote:

Reality Check On Clinton's Claims on Florida and Michigan Delegates
February 22, 2008

CLINTON RHETORIC: "Let's talk about the agreement. The only agreement I entered into was not to campaign in Michigan and Florida. It had nothing to do with not seating the delegates. I think that's an important distinction. I did not campaign... that's not the case at all. I signed an agreement not to campaign in Michigan and Florida."

REALITY: Clinton Said "It's Clear" That The Michigan Primary Won't "Count For Anything"

Clinton Said "It's Clear" That The Michigan Primary Won't Count For Anything. Clinton, on why she stayed on the ballot for the Michigan primary said, "Well, you know, people in Michigan are flat on their backs. They have the highest unemployment rate in America. They are now grappling finally with what they are going to do with the auto industry. 1 in 10 jobs in America is tied to the auto industry which is -- the American auto industry, which as we know is centered in Michigan. You know, it's clear this election they're having isn't going to count for anything. But I just personally didn't want to set up a situation where the Republicans are going to be campaigning between now and whenever. And then after the nomination we have to go in and repair the damage and be ready to win Michigan in November 2008." [NHPR Interview, 10/11/07]

RHETORIC: "Now, the DNC made the determination that they would not seat the delegates, but I was not party to that"

REALITY: Clinton Top Delegate Adviser Voted To Strip Michigan And Florida Of Their Delegates

Clinton Top Delegate Adviser Harold Ickes Voted For Democratic Party Rules That Stripped Michigan And Florida Of Their Delegates. "Harold Ickes, a top adviser to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign who voted for Democratic Party rules that stripped Michigan and Florida of their delegates, now is arguing against the very penalty he helped pass. In a conference call Saturday, the longtime Democratic Party member contended the DNC should reconsider its tough sanctions on the two states, which held early contests in violation of party rules. He said millions of voters in Michigan and Florida would be otherwise disenfranchised - before acknowledging moments later that he had favored the sanctions." [AP, 2/17/08]

I would favor a re-do of caucuses that stayed open ALL DAY. That makes it possible for Hillary supporters to get there too. Let it be open from 5AM till 10PM.

WEB

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · #2 (**permalink**) 03-06-2008, 09:09 PM

I would also add that Clinton signed a pledge/contract to abide by the rules of the primaries and caucuses.

Marc Ambinder (August 31, 2007) - The Pledge: Four States Urge Dems To Avoid Campaigning In Non-Compliant States

Clinton signed this pledge 5 months before the primaries in Michigan and Florida:

Quote:

The Democratic party chairs of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada just sent the Dem presidential candidates this pledge:

WHEREAS, Over a year ago, the Democratic National Committee established a 2008 nominating calendar;

WHEREAS, this calendar honors the racial, ethnic, economic and geographic diversity of our party and our country;

WHEREAS, the DNC also honored the traditional role of retail politics early in the nominating process, to insure that money alone will not determine our presidential nominee;

WHEREAS, it is the desire of Presidential campaigns, the DNC, the states and the American people to bring finality, predictability and common sense to the nominating calendar.

THEREFORE, I, [Name], Democratic Candidate for President, pledge I shall not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential election primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as "campaigning" is defined by rules and regulations of the DNC.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · #3 (**permalink**) 03-06-2008, 10:39 PM

Crist says he's OK with Dem do-over -- OrlandoSentinel.com

Quote:

The DNC has suggested that Florida Democrats hold caucuses before mid-June that could be used to decide delegates. But such an event would cost about $4 million, with another primary topping even that price tag.

Florida taxpayers paid for the Jan. 29 election, but with the state budget facing cuts because of the weak economy, state officials have said they would not help underwrite a Democratic do-over.

It's funny, I heard one of Clinton's top strategists (James Carville) saying that Florida Republican Governor Crist offered to pay for this thing. However, I saw him say on Hardball tonite that he won't do that.

It's a mess. It's really up to the state Democrats in Florida and Michigan to solve this. If not, I suspect they are going to do a half and half at the convention (half for Obama, half for Clinton). Pelosi also said that these failed results cannot be allowed to determine the nomination.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · #4 (**permalink**) 03-06-2008, 11:35 PM

It's interesting. This source implies that there is:

* No money for a primary or caucus in Michigan
* No time to organize a caucus in Michigan

This implies that the delegates will be seated but automatically split between Obama and Clinton.

Michigan, Florida legislators discuss possibility of do-over | Freep.com | Detroit Free Press

Quote:

Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, for one, has already said the $10-million cost of a publicly funded primary is out of the question, though there could be a privately paid-for Democratic caucus. Today, state Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer said he knows that if a caucus were held, the money for it would have to be raised privately.

Also today, Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean said the DNC would not pay for contests to be held in Michigan or Florida but seemed to be encouraging the states to hold such do-over events.

Asked on MSNBC whether he thought Michigan and Florida would get a chance to vote again, Dean said, “I hope they will, but in order to do that they’ve got to do a couple of things.”

Brewer noted that any do-over caucus in Michigan is still a long shot, since it would have to be pulled together before this summer’s nomination convention in Denver.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · #5 (**permalink**) 03-06-2008, 11:38 PM

I have an idea. The Obama campaign could volunteer to provide funds with the Hillary campaign for a caucus in Michigan. That would really look quite noble. Even if he is defeated there, it would still look good and maybe get him some votes.

AzTeK · #6 (**permalink**) 03-07-2008, 02:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W.E.B. Du Bois

I have an idea. The Obama campaign could volunteer to provide funds with the Hillary campaign for a caucus in Michigan. That would really look quite noble. Even if he is defeated there, it would still look good and maybe get him some votes.

Which I wanted to point out, but you beat me to it

They could even split it up among the two candidates in theory. $4 Million might seem a lot, but in terms of the campaigns, it's really peanuts. Obama just set up a new all time record of $55 million in February, and as you said, if he spent those $4 million on a new Caucus it would probably have a similar if not bigger effect than a TV ad campaign that would end up costing roughly the same I assume.

superdude17* · #7 (**permalink**) 03-07-2008, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AzTeK

Which I wanted to point out, but you beat me to it

They could even split it up among the two candidates in theory. $4 Million might seem a lot, but in terms of the campaigns, it's really peanuts. Obama just set up a new all time record of $55 million in February, and as you said, if he spent those $4 million on a new Caucus it would probably have a similar if not bigger effect than a TV ad campaign that would end up costing roughly the same I assume.

And he's still losing the race. lol. Money can't buy an election. I love it.

Even Ann Coulter is endorsing Hillary. She has such a broad base, there is no way that Obama is winning the nominee.

Raoul · #8 (**permalink**) 03-07-2008, 06:10 PM

With only a few states left to go, it is at this stage clear that each camp will go back and forth fighting for delegates and this campaign will end in gridlock.

According to my projections you can expect Obama to win Wyoming, Oregon, South Dakota, Mississippi, Guam, and Montana with Clinton winning Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico. Clinton certainly is expected to get a slight majority of the remaining super delegates and when the smoke clears, I’m estimating that Obama will have 1,916 delegates and Clinton will have 1,874. This amounts to a 50.5% to 49.5% delegate lead for Obama, which falls short of the required amount of delegates to get the nomination and is not a convincing margin.

leo · #9 (**permalink**) 03-07-2008, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdude17*

And he's still losing the race. lol. Money can't buy an election. I love it.

Even Ann Coulter is endorsing Hillary. She has such a broad base, there is no way that Obama is winning the nominee.

Losing the race... ??? Obama has more popular vote and pledge delegates... ???

How is that losing the race - if it is it seems like McCain is doing really bad too ???????

I don't get your statement.... since when is more votes from Americans, equal a losing race. lol....