Welcome to the internet's top destination for the civil discussion of politics. This is a forum for discussion and debate of the issues, and not for personal remarks aimed at other discussants.
This forum has no political affiliation and welcomes your perspective on the issues. Membership is free. If you would like to join the discussions and debates please REGISTER HERE.
All new members should review the forum rules. The "Today's Posts" button automatically adjusts itself to fit your screen on its first use for Firefox and on its second use, for Internet Explorer. Have a pleasant day. (This is a spam free board.)
Obama got spanked last night in Ohio and Texas. I was really hoping for the Obama win in Texas, but he lost it narrowly 51% to 47%.
Here's my take on the situation: Hillary Clinton supporters have made a major mistake in supporting Hillary in Texas and Ohio. Hillary did try to pass universal healthcare in 1994 and failed. The Democrats controlled: the Presidency, the Senate and the House at the same time by larger margins than they do today (in the Congress). Yet the effort still failed. It takes bi-partisan support to pass major reform like healthcare, and Hillary is not going to get it.
I think Obama will win the Democratic nomination. By the time the caucus results come in within the next few days, it is very likely that Hillary may get no net gain at all out of last nights victories. Obama will win Wyoming and Mississippi in the next two weeks and then it will be close again in Pennsylvania. The race will go all the way to the convention in August. Obama's beating Hillary in the delegate math. The only way to turn that around is with the superdelegates. I doubt the Democrats will overrule the will of the people by doing that. If they do, then the party will split and permanent damage will be done to the party. Hillary will lose in November.
The Democrats discarded a major advantage last night against the Republicans. In the next 3-4 months, about $200 million that could have been spent expanding the Democratic base will be spent attacking Democrats. Democrats have inflicted a large self-inflicted wound upon themselves. It is possible that the nominee will defeat McCain, but now it's harder.
In either case, I am still quite serious when I say that I would rather lose behind Obama, than win behind Hillary. Hillary Rodhman Clinton is a disgrace, period.
MARCH 2008
8 Wyoming Democratic caucuses
11 Mississippi primary
APRIL 2008
22 Pennsylvania primary
MAY 2008
6 Indiana and North Carolina primaries
13 Nebraska primary
West Virginia Democratic primary
West Virginia GOP primary (1/3 selected)
20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries
27 Idaho Republican caucus
JUNE 2008
3 Montana Democratic primary
New Mexico Republican caucus
South Dakota primary
AUGUST 2008
25-28 Democratic National Convention in Denver
SEPTEMBER 2008
1-4 Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul
26 Presidential debate in Oxford, Miss.
OCTOBER 2008
2 Vice Presidential debate in St. Louis, Mo.
7 Presidential debate in Nashville, Tenn.
15 Presidential debate in Hempstead, N.Y.
NOVEMBER 2008
4 Election Day
WEB
__________________
Forum Rule 3: Discuss the Issue, not your opponent.
Ah, my man Chuck Todd. This guy is the greatest. He's like a politically neutral version of Karl Rove.
This was a beautiful speech by Obama on the night he was defeated. It still made me get out of my chair and cheer, which I've never done in my life for any other candidate.
Obama talks about the rest of the campaign:
I want to mention two other things here:
* I agree with something Chris Matthews said, which is that we're not really seeing Obama waxing and waning and Hillary waxing and waning. All we're seeing is a battle in one state after the next, each of which has a different demographic makeup. Obama wins in states that are largely black, or states that are not suffering from economic hardship. Hillary wins in states that are largely Latino, or states that are suffering from economic hardship.
To my knowledge, prior to tonite, Obama was ahead by 1 million in the popular vote. Hillary picked up 100,000 net people in Texas and about 225,000 people in Ohio. So Obama still has the edge in the popular vote (as well as the pledged delegate count):
Texas and Ohio both showed that Clinton’s central criticism of Obama is also beginning to make headway. In both states more than 65 percent of Democratic voters said it was Clinton who “offered clear and detailed plans to solve the country's problems,” and Clinton won an equal share of their support.
In Texas, like Ohio, more Democrats thought Obama “inspires” and more Democrats thought Clinton would prove a better “commander in chief.”
Voters worried about their "financial situations" leaned toward Clinton. Those not worried backed Obama. But by a two-to-one ratio, Texas Democrats were concerned about their family's economic stability next year.
Economics dominated the day in Ohio. A striking 6 in 10 Democratic voters in Ohio said the economy was the most important issue, about 15 percentage points higher than in Wisconsin. That economics were a concern was no surprise. Ohio boasts one of the highest levels of unemployment in the country. Clinton won a slim majority of these economically anxious Ohio Democrats, an improvement of about 10 percentage points since last week.
About half of Democrats again said the most important candidate quality was that she or he “can bring about needed change.” That Obama still won 7 in 10 of these voters but lost this economically distressed state seemed to be a bump for Obama after weeks of momentum.
We can also add that the "kitchen sink" has been effective at defeating Obama.
The conclusion is two things:
* Obama has to do a better job merging his inspirational speeches and THE PERCEPTION that he does not have detailed plans on change.
* Obama needs to keep making the argument against Hillary
__________________
Forum Rule 3: Discuss the Issue, not your opponent.
We can also add that the "kitchen sink" has been effective at defeating Obama.
The conclusion is two things:
* Obama has to do a better job merging his inspirational speeches and THE PERCEPTION that he does not have detailed plans on change.
* Obama needs to keep making the argument against Hillary
I think another factor was republicans crossing over and voting for Hillary in the democratic primaries. I listened to Neal Boortz and Laura Ingraham some yesterday, two right-wing radio talk show hosts, and they both had been urging their listeners in those states to vote for Hillary, since both had open primaries. I heard several callers say that they voted for Hillary, even though they were actually republicans. Since McCain practically had the republican nomination already locked up, there was little point in voting for him.
So I wonder how much that played an extent in Hillary's wins, particularly in Texas where Hillary's margin of victory was slim.
I also heard the same thing while listening to Hannity's show yesterday. However, I think Obama still won the Republican vote, according to exit polls. Chris Matthews mentioned that black turnout was weak in Texas.
__________________
Forum Rule 3: Discuss the Issue, not your opponent.
I still have a lingering feeling that the only reason why Billary was so successful last night was what that bloated, loudmouth Limbaugh said about corting all the Repubs to vote for Billary.
Though not an Obama supporter per se, I have to admit I hoped it would be finished yesterday. The contest continuing this long is really bad for the Democrats overall...
Linear Mode
