Hillary is leading Democrats to defeat in 08' - Political Forum

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · 03-04-2008, 12:07 AM

Todd: McCain marches forward - Decision '08 - MSNBC.com

Quote:

John McCain marches forward
A perfect storm puts him on top, but will Obama topple his momentum?
By Chuck Todd, Political Director of NBC News
updated 3:31 p.m. ET, Mon., March. 3, 2008

There are at least two people hoping Sen. Hillary Clinton does well on Junior Super Tuesday: Clinton, of course, and Sen. John McCain.

The last thing McCain needs right now is to face a de facto Democratic nominee by the name of Sen. Barack Obama.

McCain's general election campaign is still in its infancy. It would not be a stretch to describe the campaign staff structure as skeletal. From the press shop to the fundraising team, the operation is thin, and understandably so. Obama’s campaign may be a movement, but McCain is the one who rode momentum to a nomination.

....

For now, McCain's has an incredible challenge in front of him – he has to build a national campaign. And the last thing he needs is a presumptive Democratic opponent on March 5. But if Obama comes roaring out of Tuesday’s contests as the de facto nominee, it’s going to be a tough few months for the GOP.

The good news is that the conventions will provide an opportunity for McCain to re-set the campaign. But between now and the conventions, Obama could do some serious damage. He could erode some GOP advantages in red states, which the RNC had no thoughts of defending just a few short months ago.

And if a McCain vs. Obama race becomes semi-official on March 5, McCain could be facing a financial onslaught that will make Clinton vs. Dole in the summer of 1996 seem like a fair fight. In Obama, McCain will be facing someone who has run fully staffed statewide organizations in nearly 40 states. More importantly, if Obama's raising some $50 million a month as a candidate for the Democratic nomination, imagine how much he might raise as the de facto nominee.

McCain desperately needs a Clinton resurgence because he needs more time. If Obama comes out of the March 4 contests as the presumptive Democratic nominee, McCain and the Republican Party have a very serious problem. Imagine this scenario: Obama starts raising $75 million a month between now and the late August conventions.

He starts using that money to play catch up in two important swing states – Michigan and Florida – where he has spent very little time.

He then attempts to expand the Electoral College playing field to places like:

* North Carolina (a large African-American turnout coupled with a university "Research Triangle" that could get Obama to 51 percent);
* Montana (the war is very unpopular there);
* Colorado (the state’s been on the verge of turning blue for some time);
* Virginia (an historic black turnout could give him the state);
* Nevada (probably out of reach, but it’s a cheap state);
* And maybe even a few others – West Virginia, Tennessee and Louisiana?

Before the August/September conventions, it is likely Obama will have advertised in some 40-45 states, either in the primary or in the post-primary/pre-convention period, potentially building poll leads in some red states. These kinds of leads could scare the living you-know-what out of the GOP. At this time, the GOP must decide in which states to try to counter Obama, and in which states to call his bluff.

These decisions won’t be based solely on the presidential campaign. They will also be based on which states have vulnerable senate seats that the GOP fears losing if Obama over performs (think North Carolina). Because of resources, McCain and the RNC are going to have to figure out a couple of paths to the magic number of 270 electoral votes. They must focus on those states and ignore the rest.

Or, instead of playing defense, perhaps McCain and the GOP can try to play in some light blue states, like New Jersey, New Hampshire and Michigan. McCain and the GOP also ought to focus heavily in the industrial Midwest and the rust belt. Obama may very well over perform out West and do well in the South because of an enormous black turnout. But he may end up struggling in states where he has to win over white working class Democrats (the so-called Reagan Democrats). Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania jump out as three states McCain should live in over the next few months.

McCain would love nothing more than buy some time to raise money and prepare for the fall. Clinton victories in both Ohio and Texas will give him just that.

It's demoralizing as hell to see the Democrats actually trying to figure out this "decision" over who is our best candidate. It's just sad.

superdude17* · 03-04-2008, 12:26 AM

Tomorrow will be a very interesting day. I believe Hillary will win both states, driven by the large majority of women and hispanics that comprise the democrat party in Texas and then the larger majority of (not to be racist, but honest) white women and blue-collar men who comprise Ohio. She has actually gone up again in Texas (latest Insider Advantage has Hillary 49, Obama 44, latest Public Policy Polling has Hillary @ 50, Obama @ 44). She has surged the last two days and has the momentum officially. I expect her to have a pretty big day tomorrow and to retake or close in a very close tie with Barack Obama.

She has also surged in Ohio, with the latest Rasmussen poll showing her up by 6 points

livelyshively · 03-04-2008, 12:43 AM

I've been sick to my stomach all day for two reasons...#1 because of a clip I saw on MSNBC'S MORNING JOE and #2 for the way WEB ripped my ass.

I'll get over reason #2 but what I saw on Morning Joe makes me want to scream. They played a clip from 60 Minutes of voters from Ohio and maybe TX, not sure. They asked voters why they were supporting their candidates. One man from Ohio mentioned that he just has some problems with Obama. The reporter asked him to explain and the man proceded to say how he doesnt feel comfortable with Barack being a Muslim and that he used a copy of the Koran, instead of the Bible, when he took his oath as a senator.

Are you kidding me???????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!

Wake up people!!!!

Support the candidate of your chooosing, but PLEASE end this epidemic of STUPIDITY. I really cannot wrap my mind around that level of ignorance.

Vote for whoever the hell you want, but educate yourself before you cast that ballot. How can people be so lazy and naive to just accept what someone tells them without checking it out. Something so important.

BARACK OBAMA IS A CHRISTIAN.

KEITH ELLISON IS THE FIRST MUSLIM ELECTED TO CONGRESS AND CHOSE TO BE SWORN IN ON THE KORAN. KEITH ELLISON PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fortunately, the 60 Minutes reporter informed the idiot from Ohio that he was very misinformed. His response, after he sat there looking like the idiot that he is, was something like, well that's what I had been told.

Not questioning what we're told is why this country is in the mess we're in now.

Please Ohio, tell me this is not an accurate reflection of your voters.

Diligent_d · 03-04-2008, 02:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by livelyshively

I'll get over reason #2 but what I saw on Morning Joe makes me want to scream. They played a clip from 60 Minutes of voters from Ohio and maybe TX, not sure. They asked voters why they were supporting their candidates. One man from Ohio mentioned that he just has some problems with Obama. The reporter asked him to explain and the man proceded to say how he doesnt feel comfortable with Barack being a Muslim and that he used a copy of the Koran, instead of the Bible, when he took his oath as a senator.

Wow. That's both sad and pathetic.

AzTeK · 03-04-2008, 04:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdude17*

I believe Hillary will win both states, driven by the large majority of women and hispanics that comprise the democrat party in Texas and then the larger majority of (not to be racist, but honest) white women and blue-collar men who comprise Ohio.

I believe both primaries are open primaries, which would mean it doesn't matter who makes up the democratic party in either states as it will once again come down to independants.

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdude17*

She has actually gone up again in Texas (latest Insider Advantage has Hillary 49, Obama 44, latest Public Policy Polling has Hillary @ 50, Obama @ 44). She has surged the last two days and has the momentum officially. I expect her to have a pretty big day tomorrow and to retake or close in a very close tie with Barack Obama.

She has also surged in Ohio, with the latest Rasmussen poll showing her up by 6 points

We all know how polls have been totally off the real results, both in cases where Obama had a clear lead and in cases where Hillary was supposed to have a clear lead. Obama was behind by a two-digit number a week or so back, so it's really anyone's guess what will come out and where the "momentum" lies, I wouldn't even bet on the end result being anywhere near what the polls suggest, but its just 20 more hours or so until we'll know

I know it's fun to speculate, but you have to remember that in all those polls, Obama and Hillary are within the margin of error. Therefore I don't think polls provide a very reliable base for speculation.

mairead · 03-04-2008, 05:07 AM

In the election over here last May, almost all the polls had New labour well ahead acording to the media, but they didn't win. Polls are fickle and usually inaccurately presented, although I believe the dirt and lies dished up against the SNP by Labour, effectively put people off. If Americans are similary put off by smear campaigns, then fixed smile Hilary hasn't a chance and Obama will romp home.
I hope the guy does it.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · 03-04-2008, 05:35 AM

Actually, I would give Hillary the advantage in Ohio. Texas is a pure tossup, it could go either way.

After some of the recent polls and headlines, I'm lowering my expectations once again and accepted the possibility of a McCain presidency again. That's about the 3rd time that I've had to do that.

AzTeK · 03-04-2008, 05:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W.E.B. Du Bois

Actually, I would give Hillary the advantage in Ohio. Texas is a pure tossup, it could go either way.

Well, she needs a pretty clear win in atleast one of them, probably both, in order for her to "succeed". If the result ends up being that in sum, Hillary and Obama get around the same amount of pledged delegates from todays primaries, this would favor Obama since he already has a pretty comfortable lead when it comes to pledged delegates and is gaining ground what supedelegates are concerned. She needs to start catching up, a tie won't solve anything but only exacerbate the problem the DNC faces. If you isolate the democratic party though, a tie would most certainly be a success for Obama.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · 03-04-2008, 06:06 AM

I don't think so. The best thing for the party would be for Hillary to get out of the race now. However, she's not going to do that unless she is beaten in both states. She may very well fight this thing out all the way till June. That's going to be a long time of attacking Obama. 4 months of attacks on Obama is going to scar him up pretty bad. Even if he wins, it could be a Pyrrhic victory.

Svante · 03-04-2008, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdude17*

Tomorrow will be a very interesting day. I believe Hillary will win both states, driven by the large majority of women and hispanics that comprise the democrat party in Texas and then the larger majority of (not to be racist, but honest) white women and blue-collar men who comprise Ohio. She has actually gone up again in Texas (latest Insider Advantage has Hillary 49, Obama 44, latest Public Policy Polling has Hillary @ 50, Obama @ 44). She has surged the last two days and has the momentum officially. I expect her to have a pretty big day tomorrow and to retake or close in a very close tie with Barack Obama.

She has also surged in Ohio, with the latest Rasmussen poll showing her up by 6 points

.
i hope Hillary d o win but i think she will win i nOhio an d loose i n Texas.
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