The independent vote in the Democratic primaries and Caucuses - Political Forum

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · 02-11-2008, 01:29 PM

The following is a compilation of how the independents voted in the Democratic Primaries and Caucuses based upon information contained in entrance and exit polling. My source is CNN: Election Center 2008: Primary Exit Polls - Elections & Politics news from CNN.com

Iowa:
Obama 41%
Clinton 17%

New Hampshire:

Obama 41%
Clinton 31%

Nevada:

Obama 47%
Clinton 33%

South Carolina:

Obama 42%
Clinton 26%

New York:

Obama 55%
Clinton 40%

New Jersey:

Obama 49%
Clinton 43%

Massachussets:

Obama 42%
Clinton 54%

Connecticut

Obama
Clinton

Georgia

Obama
Clinton

Alabama
Obama
Clinton

California
Obama
Clinton

New Mexico
Obama
Clinton

Arizona

Obama
Clinton

Montana

Obama
Clinton

Nebraska

Obama
Clinton

Kansas

Obama
Clinton

Washington

Obama
Clinton

Maine

Obama
Clinton

Louisiana

Obama
Clinton

To be continued....

AzTeK · 02-11-2008, 01:36 PM

Hmm...Obama pretty much owned her even in NY, nice to see.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · 02-11-2008, 01:43 PM

Well he owned her in NY among independents, but as far as the popular vote was concerned, he got crushed in my homestate.

On February 5th (also called Super Tuesday) about half the states in the Union voted. The vote was roughly 50/50, but it seems that if Obama had more time, he would have won. Only recently did the primary become a two person race, so Obama wasn't being looked at as the only alternative to Hillary before. That was a disadvantage to him.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · 02-11-2008, 03:20 PM

I tabulated all the data. Obama wins the independent vote in 75% of primaries and caucuses that had exit and entrance polling. He wins the independent vote 82% of the time if you count the states that did not have exit or entrance polling but where Obama beat Hillary by large margins.

Troianii · 02-11-2008, 03:39 PM

I predict that Obama will gain alot more momentum for one very simple reason: Romney dropped out. Now that Romney is out there is no chance for a GOP brokered convention and McCain has won it, even Ron Paul has said so. However, McCain and Ron Paul were the GOP guys bringing in big independent votes. Ron Paul's supporters have always been pretty small in number, but now that John McCain pretty much has the GOP nomination independent voters will start looking at the Democratic party more, and that will bring in more votes for Obama. Not a huge difference mind you, but in their race right now even this little bit of an edge could give him a victory.

But for some reason I still have a hard time seeing a Democrat take the nomination over Hillary. I honestly doubt the super delegates will come through for her because they are usually there to make sure it looks like the winner won by large margins, but who knows.

rsather139 · 02-11-2008, 05:57 PM

Damn. Just damn. I don't know if there is much you can say to that.

Troianii · 02-11-2008, 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W.E.B. Du Bois

Well he owned her in NY among independents, but as far as the popular vote was concerned, he got crushed in my homestate.

On February 5th (also called Super Tuesday) about half the states in the Union voted. The vote was roughly 50/50, but it seems that if Obama had more time, he would have won. Only recently did the primary become a two person race, so Obama wasn't being looked at as the only alternative to Hillary before. That was a disadvantage to him.

I've gotten the impression that, next to Massachusetts, New York is pretty much the Democratic stronghold, where the Independents and Republicans combined have a hard time matching Democrats in numbers. The other side of that coin, though, is that the Republican party there isn't too conservative on social issues, mainly on economic issues. That's just an impression, do you as a New Yorker find that to be accurate?

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · 02-12-2008, 02:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Troianii

I predict that Obama will gain alot more momentum for one very simple reason: Romney dropped out. Now that Romney is out there is no chance for a GOP brokered convention and McCain has won it, even Ron Paul has said so. However, McCain and Ron Paul were the GOP guys bringing in big independent votes. Ron Paul's supporters have always been pretty small in number, but now that John McCain pretty much has the GOP nomination independent voters will start looking at the Democratic party more, and that will bring in more votes for Obama. Not a huge difference mind you, but in their race right now even this little bit of an edge could give him a victory.

But for some reason I still have a hard time seeing a Democrat take the nomination over Hillary. I honestly doubt the super delegates will come through for her because they are usually there to make sure it looks like the winner won by large margins, but who knows.

I agree that the Republican side having already decided on McCain helps Obama, but I don't know if it will be enough, given the inability of a Democrat to win a close election without a lot of support from the superdelegates.

I think that if the election is decided against the popular will of the Democrats, then not only is Hillary guaranteed to lose, but it will do serious damage to the Democratic Party in the longrun.

Sebelius for VP, not Hillary · 02-12-2008, 02:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Troianii

I've gotten the impression that, next to Massachusetts, New York is pretty much the Democratic stronghold, where the Independents and Republicans combined have a hard time matching Democrats in numbers. The other side of that coin, though, is that the Republican party there isn't too conservative on social issues, mainly on economic issues. That's just an impression, do you as a New Yorker find that to be accurate?

Well firstly, New York is a closed primary, so that means that independents could not vote in our elections.

My impression is that you don't have many Republicans in New York City, but you have more Republicans upstate and some on Long Island. It's accurate to say that Republicans in New York are of the Giuliani stamp. Tough on talking about the war against radical Islam, liberal on social issues and conservative on economic issues.

Troianii · 02-12-2008, 03:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W.E.B. Du Bois

I agree that the Republican side having already decided on McCain helps Obama, but I don't know if it will be enough, given the inability of a Democrat to win a close election without a lot of support from the superdelegates.

I think that if the election is decided against the popular will of the Democrats, then not only is Hillary guaranteed to lose, but it will do serious damage to the Democratic Party in the longrun.

I'm sure that Obama can take it. The last national poll I saw showed him two points behind Hillary, and I think that the extra independents he's going to take will be enough to bring him over the top. Also, I don't think that he'll get much opposition from the superdelegates. From what I've heard they usually go with whatever is most popular in order to make it seem like the candidate won by large margins, but the superdelegates also want to see the party win the general election, and I think that most of them know Hillary can't take it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by W.E.B. Du Bois

Well firstly, New York is a closed primary, so that means that independents could not vote in our elections.

My impression is that you don't have many Republicans in New York City, but you have more Republicans upstate and some on Long Island. It's accurate to say that Republicans in New York are of the Giuliani stamp. Tough on talking about the war against radical Islam, liberal on social issues and conservative on economic issues.

That's my impression, but what part do you live in, the big city?