Albinonewt

I get McCain's theory on how he'll win the general election. The premise is that even though conservatives like me will stay home he'll be able to make up for that by grabbing independents. I think that will work against Clinton and will spell doom against Obama.

However, how will that affect the dynamic of the senate and house races? If (and when) folks like me stay home and don't vote in the Presidential election will we still turn out in force to vote for Senators and Congressmen? And if not will the independents that McCain attracts decide to support the entirety of the Republican party on the ballot?

I think the answer to both of those questions is probably no. I feel no paticular loyalty to a Republican party that nominates McCain as its leader and I won't bother going to the polls to vote for congress. Secondly, I don't think McCain's appeal to independents will help one iota with Republican nominees for the senate and house.

Add into this the fact that the GOP was already going to havea lot of problems with the Senate this year, just given the number of Republican seats that have to be defended this year. And with all the Republican house members retiring this can only serve to make things worse.

I think the Republican party is about to enter a really rough election cycle. And it's largely of it's own doing.

francois60

Any candidate that is popular with the electorate helps other candidates on the ticket.

You may not like it, but McCain represents a new direction for the party. That will draw in conservative Democrats irritated with their own party, as well as get independents back on Republicans's side.

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chicken butt

Albinonewt

Maybe they'll vote for McCain. But will they vote for the under ticket? That's the question. I don't think they will. With the big caveat being unless the Republican parties fills all those vacant seats with squishy Republicans like McCain. I suppose that's possible.

Albinonewt

My point is, are guys like Thad Cochrane going to be able to make up the votes of conservatives that McCain loses them? Are independents going to come out to the polls and cast their ballots for senatorial and congressional candidates to the right of the Republican Presidential nominee?

Somehow I doubt it.

You may not like it, but McCain represents a new direction for the party. The direction however is one where due to its abandonment of conservatives it either has to accept the fact that it can't win elections or lurch to the left and become a second Demcratic party.

calculus

Yea McCain's new direction = being liberal. He's aware of the political pendulum and is obviously not siding with the Repulican's ideas on the issue. It was said back in the last election that Kerry wanted McCain on the ballot for vice. McCain declined.

Seems to me like McCain is flip-flopping just get into office.

Big Brother

By the same token, Obama will be good for congressional Democratic races because he may draw independents to vote for his 'new direction' in the Senate and congress. Hillary will be bad for the Democrats in congress because she will draw conservatives out to vote against her, and for their (Republican) parties congressional candidates at the same time.



Bro

Albinonewt

That is probably true, and it's important to note one major difference between McCain and Obama.

Both are capable of "reaching out across the aisle" when it comes to securing independent voters. The difference is McCain does it at the expense of his base and Obama does not.

Big Brother

Yes, but I think it's also important to note that : it is the Democratic party that is the more centrist. The Conservatives have had their cake and eaten it. For the progressives/Leftists in the Democratic party, there is currently no candidate. However, they will be satisfied with Obama. Conservatives have grown a little more spoiled, I'm afraid.


If I were a moderate Republican, I would vote for Rommney, because although he will lose, he will be better for the party and give the Republicans a better chance of fending of the enemy in the congressional races. All IMHO.


Bro

Troianii

You know I'm not entirely happy with McCain, but I'm happy enough. Bill Clinton was practically the only President to have no military experience whatsoever. People seem to slam Bush more for his military experience than Clinton's lack thereof and draft dodging, but the point is that we've strayed from a tradition of military leaders leading our military. I'd like people to realize that the President is the commander in chief, and it is very important for the commander of the largest military in the world to have some experience.

McCain is ok. I'm looking at majoring in economics, so I've been killing myself looking at McCain lately, but he is coming around to the economic Republicans (somewhat), and he's a far better choice over the Democrats.


At the same time, I don't see him changing the party that much. Sure, he might bring independents in to join the party, but the party won't change much. As far as Democrats go, Bill Clinton was rather conservative. If you look at the Bill Clinton 1992-2000 he was more conservative than any of the Democrats that tried for office after him. Al Gore, John Kerry, the 2008 candidates, they've all been far more liberal than Bill Clinton was. He was a new face to lead the party, but the party itself didn't follow him that much. If anything, they strayed further to the left.

Albinonewt

This I disagree with.

First, in what way is Obama (2007's most liberal senator) not a candidate for the progressives/leftists (read far left liberals) in the party? His rhetoric is is sweeping and centrist sounding but his policies are standard far left. And his full time anti-war railing is exactly what the far left wants to see and hear.

Second, the Democratic party is not more centrist. The quick evidence of this is of the three remaining Republican candidates only one is even trying to appeal to conservatives. Whereas Joe Lieberman who was to the right on exactly one issue was booted so hard in 2004 that a centrist didn't even bother running for the Democratic noination in 2008.

And if conservatives got to nominate the Republican senator that was rated as the most conservative of 2007 I'm pretty sure we'd all be perfectly happy with that.