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Originally Posted by GlobalSmiles
Ok then how about this, since I seem to be unable to walk away from this with a sense of respect for you guys and myself at he same time, I'd kindly point out that all the insurgencies both of you claim the US caused (mind you the PKK is definitely not part of that, even if we are in their sights now) is a threat to the state of Iraq as well. Since we are trying to prop up a government with some stability when we leave we have to address their mmediate military issues they are going to face while we are still there . . .
100k you guys say? Sounds like we need to bring em into the fold or start killing, I think we have been working on both. I disagree with both of you vehemently on your premise, we messed it up bad and that let there be room for insurgencies to develop. There are actually great articles on how and in what ways we botched the whole thing. Its not as clear as either of you would like it to be.
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Two points for you.
First of all, the insurgency didn't develop because of the mismanagement of the war by the US. The insurgency has existed since day one when we invaded. The people of any nation have a right to oppose the invasion and occupation of THEIR country by a foreign nation and that is the basis for the insurgency. While perhaps more organized over time that merely has to do with the duration of the occupation and not with anything that the US has done or hasn't done since invading and occupying Iraq.
The second point is that while we might be facing about 100,000 armed militia members in Iraq they represent the majority of all Iraqis. As was noted before over 51% of all Iraqis support armed resistance to the US occupation. Trying to "kill off the opposition" would be paramount to genocide resulting in the deaths of millions of Iraqis.
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Originally Posted by GlobalSmiles
Anyways my second point is very legit, we leave (your wish), and Iraq splits into three states that end up fighting for the next 40+ years. . .I think we'd all regret that. If you guys don't think Sadr isn't up to something sinister, you are just blind, he has to be cowed or done away with before we go.
Sunnis flipped to our side well over a year ago now, so if thats changed I' like to see some links saying so. Sadr = bad AQ= bad PKK= we should probably refer the whole issue to the UN, should there be a Kurdistan?
Anyways learn to respectfully disagree, I just wanted to stop because I had said my piece and knew I wasn't going to change either of your opinions.
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I seriously doubt that Iraq would subdivide itself if the US left. The Iraqi People are very nationalistic and, in fact, it is this very nationalism that is behind the insurgency.
As for referring the matter to the UN that would be desasterous. A UN occupation would be no different than the NATO occupation in Afghanistan where the US is attempting to exclude a large percentage of the population from representation in the government. There is fundamentally no difference between the occupation of a nation by a country and the occupation of a country by numerous nations. The occupation would continue and it would only continue with the US military as no other nations would want to send their troops to Iraq. An occupying force is an accupying force.
As has been noted, the US has not ended the Sunni insurgency but merely reduced its activities by fundamentally paying the Sunnis to not actively fight us for now. Al Sadr has also shown a historical preference to working within the Iraqi government and his opposition is merely against working with the US occupation. Remember, it was al Sadr that initiated a unlateral ceasefire and it was the US backed Iraqi forces of al Maliki that initiated the recent violence in Basra. Al Sadr has not shown a desire to fight against other Iraqis and his focus has always been on the US occupation forces and those that support that occupation.
Al Qaeda in Iraq and the PKK are not serious threats to the sovereignty of Iraq. Both represent extremist positions and don't have the support of the Iraqi people. Numerically they are insignificant and both would be suppressed by a unified Iraqi government that will result once the US departs.