Quote:
Originally Posted by Ummwhat
I would like to know what you three think would happen if we up and pulled out right now.
Granted given the best MAGTF planners we have, it would take a minimum of 15 months to be gone. But what do you think would happen to that country if we left this second?
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There's two possibilities: the first one, and the more desirable one, which is not unlikely, is that all the insurgency aimed and aroused because of US presence there would stop, because obviously the reason for that insurgency is gone, which would leave rather few remaining insurgents that even the current government could deal with. You also have to remember that Arabs (Iraqis) and Persians (Iranians) are basically natural enemies that hav ebeen fighting for decades - with the mutual enemy (the US) gone, it's rather far-fetched to assume somehow this cooperation, if any, will continue.
The second one is obviously that a civil war could break out between the three ethnic groups. Not only do oppinion polls suggest that since the Iraqi's main problem is US occupation this is rather unlikely, but even if it were to happen, it would happen wether the US pulls out now, in 10 years or in 20 years. If the divisions between the Iraqis are so strong that they would bash eachothers heads, then that will not change, probably only be exacerbated, by US presence there. So in that case you would only prolonging the inevitable, which means there also is no reason to stay any longer.
In any case, both scenarios can only profit from the US leaving. Either by resolving the problem itself, or by letting this come to a conclusion as fast as possible.