Quote:
Originally Posted by Shiva_TD
There is a primary factor that you seem to miss as well. Overwhelmingly the violence in Iraq is related to the insurgency which is opposed to the US presence in Iraq. When the US leaves the insurgency against the US presence comes to an end. Attacks against the Iraqi police forces and politicians, which are predicated upon their collaboration with the US will also end. Overall violence would be greatly reduced and easily manageable by the over 300,000 Iraqi Security forces that are already trained and deployed.
People like to worry about al Qaeda in Iraq but realize that in five years they have managed less than 1000 attacks. While that is a lot numerically it is only a small fraction of the violence in Iraq. It is the US presence that overwhelmingly creates the violence in Iraq and our continued presence is the problem and not the solution. The Iraqis can and will easily eject al Qaeda in Iraq once the US is gone.
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The insurgency i think you will agree is made up of many factions and causes they may have a common enemy now if the enemy (us) simply leaves will they all live happily ever after ? A good example of what happens if US forces withdraw has taken place in Basra . The Brits are bunkered down at the Airport waiting to leave, they left Basra the Militias took over they started fighting each other Basra is a no go area crime and disorder is rife. Now the Iraqi Army are fighting to regain control , they can just about manage (maybe) in one city one region but could they keep the lid on internal security in the whole country ?
I would say no... the country would descend in to chaos -civil war the Government needs more time a very gradual withdrawal over many years is the most likely scenario to succeed.